North American Morning Briefing: Stock Futures Up as Investor Fears over Trade Tensions Ease

OPENING CALL

Stock futures rallied as investors' fears over escalating trade tensions eased and as Israel welcomed back hostages released by Hamas.

Trump on Sunday softened its tone on China tariff threats. Trump had vowed last week to slap 100% tariffs on Chinese imports after Beijing set export controls on rare-earth materials, which are key to semiconductor production.

"The key question for markets is whether these [tariffs] are ultimately implemented , with severe effects on global supply chains and especially high-tech production, or remain just efforts to gain negotiating leverage," Goldman Sachs said.

Shares of Nvidia and other major U.S. semiconductor stocks were on the rise premarket .

Natixis said the U.S. and China could accelerate supply-chain localization after trade tensions escalated again . China's renewed tightening of export controls is "a quantum leap in severity and coverage of such controls."

As a new week begins, the government shutdown continues, with many federal workers set to miss their first full paychecks. The shutdown delayed the key nonfarm payrolls report for September and the timing of its release and other official data remains uncertain.

"With little new data due to the shutdown, a rate cut this month is likely and fully priced," Citi said.

Third-quarter earnings season will also kick off in earnest this week, with big financial institutions, including JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, leading the way.

Stocks to Watch

Alibaba: Hong Kong-listed technology stocks dropped, tracking U.S. declines from Friday despite Trump softening his rhetoric. Shares in chip companies like SMIC were the exception, gaining on hopes that Beijing will nurture its homegrown industry.

Amazon, Tesla: Shares in the two companies rallied before the bell, as did other "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks.

AstraZeneca struck a medication-pricing deal with the Trump administration, the latest drugmaker to do so after Pfizer.

Critical Metals gained after Trump said he would hit China with a 100% additional tariff and impose new export controls on critical software products after Beijing placed new restrictions on the export of rare-earth minerals. Shares were up 5.3% in after-hours trading. Shares of USA Rare Earth also rose, up 9.7% in late trading after closing up 5%.

Shares of MP Materials, in which the Pentagon recently took a stake, jumped 10% premarket. The stock rallied on Thursday and Friday after China tightened rare-earth export controls.

Nvidia, AMD, On Semiconductor: U.S. chip stocks looked set to rebound after Trump struck a more conciliatory tone on China. They skidded on Friday in response to resurgent trade tensions.

Robinhood, Strategy: Crypto-sensitive stocks rose ahead of the open, tracking a rebound in bitcoin prices.

Warner Bros Discovery: David Ellison, the CEO of Paramount Skydance is making a play to buy all of Warner before the media conglomerate splits. Ellison is considering taking the offer directly to shareholders after an earlier approach was rebuffed.

Watch For:

Columbus Day Holiday

Today's Top Headlines/Must Reads:

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MARKET WRAPS

Forex:

The dollar edged lower in the wake of Trump threatening to impose new 100% tariffs against China next month. The greenback's decline has so far been limited as most seem to expect another agreement to be made but the risks of escalation in tensions seem higher, Commerzbank said.

The euro fell. Political uncertainty in France looks set to persist this week, remaining a headwind for the euro , MUFG Bank said.

"Downside risks for the euro would increase if Lecornu once again proves unsuccessful in reaching an agreement and thereby increases the probability of President [Emmanuel] Macron calling snap elections before year end."

Bonds:

Bond markets were shut today for Columbus Day, celebrated by many people as Indigenous Peoples' Day.

Energy:

Oil prices rose following Trump's conciliatory words about China.

Gains, though, are limited by an easing geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East after Israel and Hamas agreed to the first phase of a U.S.-brokered plan for a cease-fire and hostage release in Gaza.

Metals:

Gold prices hit a record high, driven by fears of a renewed trade war between the U.S. and China.

"Renewed trade tension saw strong haven buying for gold and other precious metals," ANZ said. "This helped offset losses...after a stronger USD and easing geopolitical risks triggered a wave of profit taking."

OCBC said the latest rift between the U.S. and China is likely to cause greater market volatility , and investors must brace for a choppy ride.

Julius Baer remains constructive on gold and silver and sees any speculators' fatigue only causing a short-term setback.

"Such fatigue should not cause a correction , but rather a short-term and temporary setback as we still see a favorable fundamental backdrop."

Copper

Copper gained, recouping some losses from Friday.

Supply-side issues are likely to remain a concern , ANZ said, citing Chilean state-owned copper producer Codelco's warning that its El Teniente mine will run below capacity for the next few months.

Silver

Silver prices climbed 5%, setting a record high as a rally in gold and a liquidity squeeze boosted sentiment.

"The most likely path for silver prices in the medium term is to rise further since silver benefits from the same private investment flows lifting gold amid Fed cuts," Goldman Sachs said. "However, in the near term, we see greater volatility and downside risk than for gold, reflecting silver's smaller and less liquid market."

Iron

Iron ore fell, flitting between gains and losses in a tight range. Rising steel prices and tightening port inventories should provide support for iron ore, while China's property market stabilizes and home sales pick up, ANZ said.

However, steel and iron ore demand won't see significant growth unless new construction activity rises.

   TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES 

Tata Capital Makes Modest Debut After $1.75 Billion IPO

Shares of Tata Capital rose modestly in their trading debut in India, adding to the surge of equity fundraising in one of the world's fastest-growing economies.

The nonbanking financial services firm raised $1.75 billion in what has been India's largest initial public offering so far this year. Its stock opened higher on its first day of trading on the Bombay Stock Exchange, gaining over 2.0% to 332.80 rupees before paring gains.

Lloyds Banking Group Sets Aside Further $1.07 Billion For Car-Loan Redress

Lloyds Banking Group said it is booking a further 800 million pound ($1.07 billion) provision to cover the cost of compensating customers as part of a probe into commissions paid on car loans.

The U.K. lender, which is the largest car-finance provider in the U.K. through its Black Horse brand, had already set aside 1.15 billion pounds for potential payouts and administrative costs.

Wingtech Shares Dive After Dutch Government Intervenes in Chip Unit

Shares of Chinese tech company Wingtech Technology plunged Monday after the Dutch government issued an order intervening in its Netherlands-based semiconductor arm, citing national-security concerns.

In a statement on Sunday, the Dutch economic affairs ministry said it took the "highly exceptional" measure in response to "signals of serious governance shortcomings and actions within Nexperia," which produces chips used in the European automotive industry and consumer electronics.

Stronger Growth, Weaker Hiring: Forecasters See a Split-Screen Economy

Prospects for U.S. economic growth are looking up, as investment in artificial intelligence booms and risks around tariffs diminish, according to economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal.

The survey was conducted earlier this month, before President Trump threatened to impose massive tariffs on China. Even as the economists have raised estimates for economic growth, they have lowered prospects for jobs.

China's Exports Rise at Fastest Pace in Six Months Despite U.S. Tariffs

China's exports rose at the fastest pace in six months in September, beating market expectations and underscoring the sector's continued role as a key growth driver for the world's second-largest economy.

Outbound shipments rose 8.3% from a year earlier, accelerating from August's 4.4% increase and exceeding the 6.0% growth forecast by economists in a Wall Street Journal poll, according to data released Monday by the General Administration of Customs.

Stocks face earnings test with S&P 500 on pace for worst performance in a shutdown since 1990

Stocks are approaching a clear test after investors were left in the fog of a government shutdown this month and rattled by fresh tariff fears Friday.

This coming week, Wall Street banking giants will mark the unofficial start of company earnings reports for the third quarter, providing a potential catalyst for the market amid a "vacuum of government data," said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist for State Street Investment Management, in an interview. He described himself as "uncomfortably bullish" on the U.S. stock market, noting that analysts have upped their estimates for S&P 500 companies' quarterly results.

The Government Shutdown Is Finally Starting to Bite

WASHINGTON-The government shutdown is starting to get real.

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October 13, 2025 06:19 ET (10:19 GMT)