Analysts See Increase in U.S. Crude Oil Inventories

By Anthony Harrup

U.S. crude oil inventories likely rose last week, while product stocks are seen lower with refineries reducing their capacity use, according to a survey by The Wall Street Journal.

Commercial crude stocks are seen increasing by 700,000 barrels to 417.2 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 3, according to the average estimate of eight analysts and traders. Five expect an increase and three predict a decline. Expectations range from an increase of 4.5 million barrels to a drop of 3.2 million barrels.

Gasoline inventories are expected to have fallen by 1 million barrels to 219.7 million barrels, with estimates ranging from a 2.4 million barrel build to a 5.5 million barrel draw.

Stocks of distillate fuels, mostly diesel, are forecast to be down by 400,000 barrels at 123.2 million barrels. Estimates range from a 3 million barrel increase to a 4.3 million barrel decline.

Refinery capacity use likely fell by 0.9 of a percentage point to 90.5% in a fourth straight weekly decline, according to the survey. Forecasts range from a 0.8 percentage point increase to a 2.1 percentage point drop. Two analysts didn't forecast refinery runs.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration is scheduled for release the inventory data on Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. ET.

 
                                    Crude    Gasoline  Distillates Refinery Use 
   Again Capital                    -1.8        2.4        2.1        0.8 
   Confluence Investment Management  2.5       -1.0       -0.5       -1.5 
   Rystad Energy                    -3.2       -5.5       -4.3       -2.1 
   Excel Futures                     4.5       -1.8       -1.0       -2.1 
   Spartan Capital Securities       -1.6       -0.9        1.3        n/f 
   Price Futures Group               2.0        2.0        3.0       unch 
   Ritterbusch and Associates        2.6       -2.6       -2.5       -0.2 
   Tradition Energy                  0.3       -1.0       -1.0        n/f 
 
   AVERAGE                           0.7       -1.0       -0.4       -0.9 
 

Note: Numbers in millions of barrels, with the exception of refinery use, which is in percentage points.

n/f = no forecast

unch = unchanged

Write to Anthony Harrup at anthony.harrup@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 07, 2025 12:37 ET (16:37 GMT)