Wheat Futures Slide as Harvesting Efforts Near End — Daily Grain Highlights

By Kirk Maltais

-- Wheat for December delivery fell 1.5% to $5.19 1/4 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade Friday in response to the winter wheat harvest being essentially finished, and that material making it out of the fields is now being accumulated in farmers' bushel bins before being sold.

-- Corn for December delivery fell 1% to $4.21 3/4 a bushel.

-- Soybeans for November delivery rose 0.2% to $10.14 1/4 a bushel.

HIGHLIGHTS

End of the Line: Winter wheat is essentially fully harvested in the U.S. Plains, which means that new grain is arriving at grain elevators and pressuring CBOT prices. That's why wheat futures are leading the complex lower in afternoon trading.

"Not a lot to impact the U.S. wheat crop right now as it starts to head into dormancy in a few weeks and current weather is quite favorable," said Karl Setzer of Consus Ag Consulting in a note.

Pressure Point: The expected inflow of freshly harvested crops coming from U.S. fields kept a lid on prices Friday.

"Record U.S. crop could weigh on prices through harvest," said ADM Investor Services in a note, in reference to corn.

Analysts said that corn fields will largely be the first fields worked by farmers heading into October, with soybean fields worked after.

Gaping Hole: Traders continue to speculate what China's continued absence in buying U.S. grain exports mean for overall U.S. soybean export demand.

"Soybeans remain in limbo as the market reconciles little export interest will likely remain for a few more weeks," said Rich Nelson of Allendale Inc., adding that Chinese demand could again return by December or January.

Soybeans have been under pressure throughout September, shedding roughly 4%.

INSIGHT

Macro Environment: The 25 basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, along with comments suggesting that more may soon come, propelled commodity futures to a strong month, particularly in precious and industrial metals, said Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank in a note.

"The single most important tailwind for commodities this month has been the renewed easing cycle by the U.S. Federal Reserve," Hansen said.

Expectations of more rate cuts before the year is out are buoying strength in commodities.

But balancing out gains in metals is weakness in soft commodities such as cocoa, coffee and sugar, along with agricultural commodities like soybeans.

Getting to the Bottom of Things: A joint task force partnering the USDA and Justice Department to investigate the high costs for farmer inputs such as fertilizer and seeds is getting praise from groups like the National Farmers Union.

"When just a handful of companies control the markets for seed, fertilizer and other farm supplies, they can raise prices at will," the NFU said in a note. "This leaves farmers squeezed between skyrocketing costs and low prices for their products."

CBOT grain futures are mostly below the levels needed for farmers to turn a profit on their acres, and these farmers need both improved crop prices and lower input costs for these acres to turn positive.

AHEAD

-- The USDA is scheduled to release its weekly grain export inspections report at 11 a.m. EDT Monday.

-- The USDA is due to release its weekly crop progress report at 4 p.m. EDT Monday.

-- The USDA is scheduled to release its quarterly grain stocks report at noon EDT Tuesday.

-- The USDA is due to release its monthly agricultural prices report at 3 p.m. EDT Tuesday.

-- Cal-Maine Foods is scheduled to release its fiscal first-quarter 2026 earnings report at 4:05 p.m. EDT Wednesday.

Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

September 26, 2025 15:28 ET (19:28 GMT)