European Midday Briefing: China Data Drags on Mood -2-

Economists are dialing back recession risks.

Easing inflation, a still-strong labor market and economic resilience led business and academic economists polled by The Wall Street Journal to lower the probability of a recession in the next 12 months to 54% from 61% in the prior two surveys.

What Markets Are Saying About the Fight Against Inflation

New signs of cooling inflation sparked market gains last week. But is the pain from inflation-and the Federal Reserve's interest-rate-raising campaign to fight it-really over?

Here is what market gauges are showing:

Taiwan's Vice President Plans Stop in the U.S. at a Delicate Moment

TAIPEI-Taiwan's vice president plans to visit the U.S. in August, less than five months after a similar trip by the island democracy's president sparked an angry response from Beijing and accelerated a deterioration in Sino-American ties.

Lai Ching-te will stop in the U.S. on his way to and from attending the inauguration of Paraguay's president next month, a top Taiwan Foreign Ministry official said at a news briefing on Monday. The official didn't offer further information on Lai's itinerary while he is in the U.S.

Russia Pulls Back From Humanitarian Cooperation at U.N.

Russia is poised to end its cooperation at the United Nations in key humanitarian areas as the Kremlin faces a difficult fight in Ukraine and is eager to shore up support at home amid recent domestic instability, Western officials said.

In recent weeks, Russia has pushed for the removal of a U.N. peacekeeping mission from Mali, blocked a critical U.N. aid supply line for Syria, and is now threatening to end an agreement that allowed Ukraine to resume its Black Sea grain exports, officials say.

Changing Places: Europeans Grow More Assertive on Ukraine as Washington Shows Caution

VILNIUS, Lithuania-Last week's NATO summit revealed a major realignment within the U.S.-led trans-Atlantic alliance.

European nations, once seen as less steadfast in their support for Kyiv and more vulnerable to Russian pressure, are determined to help Ukraine win an unambiguous victory. At the same time, the Biden administration, which orchestrated a unified Western response to Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion last year, is increasingly cautious-constrained by domestic politics and a fear of direct confrontation with Moscow.

Write to paul.larkins@dowjones.com

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This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 17, 2023 05:29 ET (09:29 GMT)

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