UK shoppers seek bargains as grocery price inflation rises to 2.5%

(Alliance News) - UK grocery price inflation accelerated in early October, prompting shoppers to seek out promotions amid concerns over the cost of living, according to survey results released on Tuesday.

Grocery price inflation rose to 2.5% in the four weeks to October 4 from 2.3% in the previous four-week period, according to market research firm Worldpanel by Numerator.

Take-home grocery sales in the UK increased by 1.0% year-on-year over the same period.

The figures showed shoppers were increasingly relying on promotions to manage household spending, with spending on special offers rising by more than GBP250 million from a year before.

"With the Autumn Budget fast approaching, the cost of living continues to weigh heavily on the minds of shoppers," said Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Worldpanel.

More than half of consumers surveyed said they were very or extremely concerned about rising petrol prices, while almost a third reported that fuel costs were already significantly affecting their finances.

"Until the chancellor sets out his plans, we expect that caution to carry on showing up at the till, with shoppers leaning more heavily on promotions to keep their grocery spend under control," McKevitt added.

Among major supermarket chains, Lidl recorded the largest market share gain among over the 12 weeks to October 4, increasing its share to 8.6% from 8.2% a year earlier.

Sales at the German discounter rose 7.1%, supported by more than 500,000 additional customers.

Ocado Retail, an online joint venture between Ocado Group PLC and Marks & Spencer Group PLC, recorded 13% sales growth, outperforming the wider online grocery market, which grew 5.5%. Its market share increased to 2.2% from 2.0%.

Tesco PLC retained its position as the UK's largest grocer, with a 28% market share and sales growth of 1.0%, while J Sainsbury PLC held 15% of the market, with sales up 1.3%.

Asda's market share stood at 12%, while Aldi held 11%, with sales at the latter rising 0.4% year-on-year.

Morrisons maintained an 8.3% market share as sales increased 1.8%.

Waitrose sales rose 2.3%, with its market share unchanged at 4.4%, while Co-op retained a 5.4% share as sales grew 1.8%.

Separately, grocery-only sales at Marks & Spencer increased by 15%. M&S is not included in Worldpanel's grocery market share rankings because of the larger contribution of clothing and general merchandise to its overall sales.

Worldpanel also reported a seasonal shift in consumer spending as temperatures cooled, with hot chocolate purchases rising 41% in September from August, while soup purchases increased 35%.

Chocolate confectionery prices were 3% lower than a year earlier, offering shoppers some relief ahead of Halloween and Christmas. McKevitt said the decline was welcome after double-digit chocolate price increases in 2025, although it would not fully reverse the impact of earlier rises.

By Eva Castanedo, Alliance News senior economics reporter

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