Company Reports

J&T's adjusted EBIT per parcel increased 77% year on year to USD 0.025. Southeast Asia parcel volume rose 71% with market share expanding 5.3 percentage points to 38.1%. Parcel volumes for other markets grew 120%, with market share rising to 8.9% from 6.2%.

J&T Express primarily adopts the regional sponsor model for its express delivery business, where the national headquarters formulates strategy and execution plans, while regional sponsors operate sorting centers, line-haul transportation, pickup and delivery. Advantages of this model include quick adaption based on regional sponsors’ local knowledge, low capital expenditure, and rapid market expansion. When the regional operating entities’ businesses stabilize, J&T seeks to acquire them from the regional sponsors for shares in J&T, reducing risk of unviable investment.

J&T Express' second-quarter parcel volume rose 24.2% year on year. Southeast Asia parcel volumes grew 63.2%, and new markets grew 136.5%. China, the largest segment, grew at a solid rate of 10.6%.

J&T Express’ first-quarter parcel volume rose 26% year on year. Southeast Asia led growth with an 80% surge, while China grew 8%, and new markets doubled parcel volumes.

J&T Global Express' adjusted EBITDA rose 23% year on year in the second half, supported by improving unit economics in the new markets segment, which turned EBIT profitable for the first time. J&T also expanded its Southeast Asia, or SEA, volume share to 35.7% from 32.8% in the first half.

J&T Express primarily adopts the regional sponsor model for its express delivery business, where the national headquarters formulates strategy and execution plans, while regional sponsors operate sorting centers, line-haul transportation, pickup and delivery. Advantages of this model include quick adaption based on regional sponsors’ local knowledge, low capital expenditure, and rapid market expansion. When the regional operating entities’ businesses stabilize, J&T seeks to acquire them from the regional sponsors for shares in J&T, reducing risk of unviable investment.

Among the A‑share express operators that have released fourth‑quarter data, year‑on‑year revenue growth ranged from 0% to 24%. Average selling price improvement was partially offset by a slowdown in industry parcel volume growth to 5.0% year on year, from 13.3% in the prior quarter.

SF Holding and J&T Express have entered into a reciprocal share subscription agreement valued at HKD 8.3 billion each. Upon completion, SF will raise its stake in J&T to 10% from 1.55%, while J&T will acquire a 4.86% interest in SF if approved by its shareholders.

J&T Express primarily adopts the regional sponsor model for its express delivery business, where the national headquarters formulates strategy and execution plans, while regional sponsors operate sorting centers, line-haul transportation, pickup and delivery. Advantages of this model include quick adaption based on regional sponsors’ local knowledge, low capital expenditure, and rapid market expansion. When the regional operating entities’ businesses stabilize, J&T seeks to acquire them from the regional sponsors for shares in J&T, reducing risk of unviable investment.

J&T Express' Southeast Asia parcel volume grew 79% year on year in the third quarter, surpassing the second-half guidance of 55%. Parcel volume in new markets rose 48%, beating the second-half guidance of 40%. In contrast, parcel volume growth in China slowed to 10% from 15% in the second quarter.

J&T Express primarily adopts the regional sponsor model for its express delivery business, where the national headquarters formulates strategy and execution plans, while regional sponsors operate sorting centers, line-haul transportation, pickup and delivery. Advantages of this model include quick adaption based on regional sponsors’ local knowledge, low capital expenditure, and rapid market expansion. When the regional operating entities’ businesses stabilize, J&T seeks to acquire them from the regional sponsors for shares in J&T, reducing risk of unviable investment.

J&T Express primarily adopts the regional sponsor model for its express delivery business, where the national headquarters formulates strategy and execution plans, while regional sponsors operate sorting centers, line-haul transportation, pickup and delivery. Advantages of this model include quick adaption based on regional sponsors’ local knowledge, low capital expenditure, and rapid market expansion. When the regional operating entities’ businesses stabilize, J&T seeks to acquire them from the regional sponsors for shares in J&T, reducing risk of unviable investment.

J&T Express primarily adopts the regional sponsor model for its express delivery business, where the national headquarters formulates strategy and execution plans, while regional sponsors operate sorting centers, line-haul transportation, pickup and delivery. Advantages of this model include quick adaption based on regional sponsors’ local knowledge, low capital expenditure, and rapid market expansion. When the regional operating entities’ businesses stabilize, J&T seeks to acquire them from the regional sponsors for shares in J&T, reducing risk of unviable investment.

J&T Express's adjusted interim EBITDA rose 24.2% year on year, as contributions from the higher-margin Southeast Asia business and the earlier-than-expected turnaround in new markets more than offset intense competition in China.

J&T Express' parcel volume in Southeast Asia, China, and new markets grew by 50%, 27%, and 19% year on year, respectively, in the first quarter. J&T's 2025 parcel volume guidance remains unchanged. The firm did not disclose financial results for the quarter.

While J&T Global Express' second-half sales only grew 12% year on year, adjusted EBITDA increased by 298%, driven by an increased mix of higher-margin non-e-commerce platform clients and improved efficiency. Free cash flow, net profit, and adjusted EBIT for its China segment turned positive in 2024.

J&T Express primarily adopts the regional sponsor model for its express delivery business, where the national headquarters formulates strategy and execution plans, while regional sponsors operate sorting centers, line-haul transportation, pickup and delivery. Advantages of this model include quick adaption based on regional sponsors’ local knowledge, low capital expenditure, and rapid market expansion. When the regional operating entities’ businesses stabilize, J&T seeks to acquire them from the regional sponsors for shares in J&T, reducing risk of unviable investment.

J&T Express aims to quickly increase its volume market share in the Southeast Asia market to 40% in an unidentified period from 25% in 2023, through cost and price reductions, as competition in Southeast Asia is not as intense as in China.

We initiate J&T Express with a no-moat rating and a fair value estimate of HKD 6.10 per share, translating to 21.3 times 2024 price/earnings. In our opinion, J&T’s shares are fairly valued. We forecast total revenue to rise at an 8% compound annual growth rate in the next five years and adjusted EBITDA margin to improve to 8.4% in 2028 from 1.7% in 2023, due to rising parcel volume and improving efficiency.

J&T Express primarily adopts the regional sponsor model for its express delivery business, where the national headquarters formulates strategy and execution plans, while regional sponsors operate sorting centers, line-haul transportation, pickup and delivery. Advantages of this model include quick adaption based on regional sponsors’ local knowledge, low capital expenditure, and rapid market expansion. When the regional operating entities’ businesses stabilize, J&T seeks to acquire them from the regional sponsors for shares in J&T, reducing risk of unviable investment.