Company Reports

As part of the global Anheuser-Busch InBev group, Budweiser APAC employs four primary commercial strategies: premiumizing at scale, differentiating the core, growing through adjacencies, and expanding commercially.

Budweiser APAC's second-quarter organic revenue fell 2.1% year on year, dragged by a 9.7% decline in China volumes, with the company noting that it underperformed an already soft industry backdrop. Management said July trading remained weak, with no clear signs of improvement.

Budweiser APAC's first-quarter organic revenue and EBITDA declined 0.7% and 8.1% year on year, respectively, due to a high base in South Korea and increased channel investments in China. However, volume declines in China moderated meaningfully, while the India market delivered robust volume growth.

As part of the global Anheuser-Busch InBev group, Budweiser APAC employs four primary commercial strategies: premiumizing at scale, differentiating the core, growing through adjacencies, and expanding commercially.

Budweiser APAC reported 2025 results with revenue and net income declining 7.7% and 16.7% year on year, respectively, dragged by persistent weakness in on-trade beer demand in China.

Budweiser APAC reported third-quarter results. Revenue declined 8.6% and beer sales volume declined 8.4% year on year, driven by weakness in on-trade channels and channel destocking in China.

As part of the global Anheuser-Busch InBev group, Budweiser APAC employs four primary commercial strategies: premiumizing at scale, differentiating the core, growing through adjacencies, and expanding commercially.

As part of the global Anheuser-Busch InBev group, Budweiser Brewing Company APAC employs four primary commercial strategies: premiumizing at scale, differentiating the core, growing through adjacencies, and expanding commercially.

Budweiser APAC reported first-half 2025 earnings, with revenue declining 5.6% year over year, primarily due to a 6.1% drop in sales volume. Soft on-trade demand in China was the main drag, which more than offset the progress made in growing in-home channel sales.

As part of the global Anheuser-Busch InBev group of firms, Budweiser Brewing Company APAC executes four main commercial strategies: premiumize at scale, differentiate the core, grow via adjacencies, and expand commercially.

Budweiser APAC's first-quarter revenue fell 7.5% year on year, primarily dragged by volume decline of 9.2% in China. Robust sales growth in South Korea was insufficient to offset weakness in China.

Narrow-moat Budweiser APAC’s 2024 earnings were below our estimates due to operating deleverage in the fourth quarter as sales volume was negatively affected by inventory destocking at distributors level. That said, we view the strategies laid out by management to pursue premiumization in the off-trade channels and gain market share in China constructively.

As part of the global Anheuser-Busch InBev group of firms, Budweiser Brewing Company APAC executes four main commercial strategies: premiumize at scale, differentiate the core, grow via adjacencies, and expand commercially.

We maintain our 2024 earnings forecasts for both narrow-moat Budweiser APAC and Tsingtao Brewery ahead of results announcements, as we have already factored in the challenging fourth quarter given seasonality and headwinds in the on-trade channels. Our fair value estimates remain intact at HKD 17 per share for Budweiser APAC and HKD 71 per share (CNY 65 per A-share) for Tsingtao Brewery. We reiterate our view that the short-term headwinds do not impair the long-term competitive advantages of the companies, which lie in their distribution strength. We continue to prefer Budweiser APAC, given its ability to monetize the digitalization of the distribution channel and the strong premium beer portfolio that could benefit from the long-term premiumization trend in China’s beer market.

As part of the global Anheuser-Busch InBev group of firms, Budweiser Brewing Company APAC executes four main commercial strategies: premiumize at scale, differentiate the core, grow via adjacencies, and expand commercially.

Narrow-moat Budweiser APAC’s third-quarter earnings were weighed on by sluggish volume in China, primarily in the on-trade channels such as restaurants and nightlife premises. Despite lower commodity costs being a tailwind, gross margin expansion was partially offset by a lower mix of on-trade channel sales, which have better margins. The near-term demand headwind was more severe than our expectation, but we retain our long-term constructive view on Budweiser APAC’s ability to monetize on the beer premiumization trend in China. We think the soft demand in on-trade channels reflects cautious spending behavior of consumers in the near term, but it does not impair the company’s competitiveness from the channel’s and product portfolio’s perspectives. We lowered our 2024 earnings estimate by 16%, due to lower revenue and higher operating cost assumptions, but we expect volume sales to rebound in 2025 when consumer sentiment improves. As a result, the reductions in our 2025-28 revenue and net income estimates are more moderate at 3%-4%, driving our fair value estimate lower to HKD 17.00 per share, from HKD 17.50. We continue to view Budweiser APAC as our top pick in the sector.

As part of the global Anheuser-Busch InBev group of firms, Budweiser Brewing Company APAC executes four main commercial strategies: premiumize at scale, differentiate the core, grow via adjacencies, and expand commercially.

As part of the global Anheuser-Busch InBev group of firms, Budweiser Brewing Company APAC executes four main commercial strategies: premiumize at scale, differentiate the core, grow via adjacencies, and expand commercially.

Narrow-moat Budweiser APAC's second-quarter earnings trailed our estimates, dragged by soft top-line trends in China. We lowered our 2024 revenue and net income estimates by 3% and 7%, respectively, but left our longer-term forecasts largely unchanged. The sharper revision in earnings is due to lower gross margin in the first half as a result of operating deleverage. However, the near-term demand weakness does not change our long-term constructive view on the company. We retain our fair value estimate at HKD 17.50, which implies 31 times 2024 price/earnings, 12 times EV/EBITDA and 2.4% dividend yield. Budweiser APAC remains our top pick among Chinese brewers thanks to its channel management capabilities and competitive premium portfolio, which should help it outperform peers in the long-term premiumization trend.

While narrow-moat Budweiser APAC’s first-quarter volume and average selling price, or ASP, trailed consensus and our estimates, its EBITDA growth exceeded expectations. Industry headwinds in China and a tough comparison dragged the top line, but gross margin expansion drove EBITDA growth, especially in South Korea. We reduced our 2024 net income forecast by 4% to factor in lower sales, but our 2025-28 earnings estimates are largely unchanged. The cut in volume projections and negative currency impact contributed equally to our downward revision in sales. We also lowered our stage II EBI assumption to 5%, from 6%, due to slower long-term volume growth assumptions given China’s maturing beer market. We expect price/mix to predominantly drive long-term EBI growth. As a result, our fair value estimate is reduced to HKD 17.50 per share, from HKD 18.50. This implies 29 times 2024 price/earnings, 12 times enterprise value/EBITDA, and 2.7% dividend yield.