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Stock Analyst Note

In the first quarter, Alcon delivered revenue growth of 10%, or 6% in constant currency, and adjusted EPS growth of 16%, or 10% in constant currency. Outlook for EPS was raised by a low-single-digit percentage. Shares are down 12% as we write May 6.
Stock Analyst Note

Narrow-moat Alcon reported soft first-quarter earnings. Total sales of $2.5 billion were roughly flat year over year, or up 3% in constant currency, and came in about 150 basis points below our expectation. Mild growth from vision care, driven by contact lenses, was offset by tepid surgical performance, which was dragged down by implantables and equipment. We think the overall contact lens market remains stable despite macro uncertainty and tariff headwinds because brand switches or trade downs are uncommon in the industry. We maintain our fair value estimate of $86 per share (and lower our SWX valuation to CHF 72 from CHF 76 to account for weakening USD). Our 2025 assumptions imply 5% revenue growth and EPS of $3.08, which are in the lower ends of the guided ranges.
Stock Analyst Note

On April 2, President Donald Trump announced a sweeping set of tariffs on all imports ranging from 10% to varying reciprocal rates, effective on April 5. In response, the broad vision care market opened on April 3 about a mid-single-digit percent down from April 2’s close and firms under our coverage—Alcon, Bausch & Lomb, Carl Zeiss, and Cooper Companies—are all trading at the level or lower at the time of writing.
Stock Analyst Note

Narrow-moat Alcon discussed current projects and initiatives, pipeline progression, and long-term financial goals in its 2025 Capital Markets Day. After digesting the performance of each business unit and its outlook, we sum up the event as such: Innovation has underpinned Alcon's market outperformance over the past five years, and the firm is doubling down on research and development to fuel future growth. We think the next several years will be filled with new launches and commercial excellence, especially as the firm steps up its R&D spending from the historical 7%-9% of sales to 8%-10% going forward. We ticked up our long-term growth rate and margin assumptions, as we now give the firm more credit on its pipeline and its success, and we raise our fair value estimate to $86 (CHF 76) per share from $80 (CHF 71).
Stock Analyst Note

Narrow-moat Alcon reported solid fourth-quarter earnings and ended 2024 on strong footing. Total sales of $2.5 billion were up 7.1% year over year thanks to broad-based growth across the portfolio. Surgical was up 5.3%, mainly driven by healthy numbers from consumables, and vision care was up 7.6% thanks to contact lens delivering double-digit growth. Below the line also looked solid as efficient operating expense management led to profit expansion—core EBIT margin improved 120 basis points—and mid-single-digit EPS growth. After rolling our model and baking in updated exchange rates, we raise our fair value estimate to $80 (CHF 71) per share from $75 (CHF 66).
Stock Analyst Note

Narrow-moat Alcon's third-quarter results came in largely as we expected. Total sales of $2.4 billion were up 3.7% year on year and a bit shy of our $2.5 billion estimate, but better-than-expected pricing trends and solid cost control helped lift profitability; core EBIT margin of 20.4% was up 110 basis points against last year and 70 basis points sequentially. However, the US surgical market demonstrated some sluggishness and looks to be going into the fourth quarter with this tepid momentum. Against the backdrop of market softness, management lowered its revenue guidance by 1.5% at the midpoint and trimmed the top end of its earnings per share guidance range to $3.05 from $3.10, about 2%. While this seems to have spooked investors, who sent the shares down about 6% on Nov. 12, we maintain our fair value estimate of $75/CHF 64 per share as minimal changes to our estimates were offset by the time value of money.
Stock Analyst Note

Narrow-moat Alcon reported solid second-quarter earnings. Total sales of $2.5 billion were up 3.1%, or 6% constant currency, year over year driven by strong implantables and contact lenses performance. Despite a number of peers delivering disappointing results during the quarter partly due to a challenged macro environment and a soft consumer outlook, we attribute Alcon’s ability to reap volume wins and drive growth to its strong intangibles. We raise our fair value estimate to $75 (CHF 64) per share from $70 (CHF 62) driven by the time value of money and a slightly ticked-up 2025 expectation.

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