Company Reports

A distant second in North American ride-hail, Lyft lacks the scale and diversification to compete effectively with Uber.

A distant second in North American rideshare, Lyft lacks the scale and diversification to compete effectively with Uber.

Lyft posted solid second-quarter results, with active riders up 17% to 30.5 million, and gross bookings up 23% to $5.5 billion. Partnerships drove 30% of North America rides (up from 27%), supporting growth. Adjusted EBITDA was up 37% to $177 million or 3.2% of gross bookings—an all-time high.

Lyft posted solid, but unspectacular, first-quarter results, with active riders up 17% to 28.3 million, and gross bookings up 19% to $4.95 billion. Partnerships drove 27% of North America rides, supporting growth but underscoring reliance on external demand channels.

Lyft's fourth-quarter gross bookings grew 19%, narrowly exceeding management's guidance of 18%. Net revenue grew 3% year over year, but this understates growth because of a one-off $168 million reserve change. Without that, growth would be closer to 16% year over year. Rides' growth is decelerating.

A distant second in North American rideshare, Lyft lacks the scale and diversification to compete effectively with Uber.

A distant second in North American rideshare, Lyft lacks the scale and diversification to compete effectively with Uber.

Lyft reported third-quarter earnings that met management guidance for bookings and adjusted EBITDA. Freenow, Lyft's European business, was rolled into the Lyft network, boosting active ridership and bookings revenue.

Lyft and Waymo announced a partnership in which Lyft's fleet management arm, Flexdrive, will manage Waymo's autonomous vehicles in Nashville in 2026. Under the agreement, riders still order on the Waymo app, but there are plans to dispatch on Lyft's network later in 2026. Shares are up 12%.

A distant second in North American rideshare, Lyft lacks the scale and diversification to compete effectively with Uber.

Lyft's second-quarter earnings fell shy of FactSet consensus on net revenue but beat management guidance on adjusted EBITDA. User metrics improved from last quarter as the take rate increased 50 basis points and active riders and total rides increased by 1.9 million and 16.4 million, respectively.

A distant second in North American rideshare, Lyft lacks the scale and diversification to compete effectively with Uber.

Lyft reported first-quarter earnings that beat management guidance on adjusted EBITDA, but fell short of FactSet consensus expectations on net revenue. Since last quarter, the take rate fell slightly from 36% to 35%, and active riders and total rides decreased by 500,000 and 100,000, respectively.

On April 2, President Trump announced a sweeping set of tariffs that range from a 10% tax on every country to varying reciprocal tariffs on perceived bad actors. DoorDash, Uber, and Lyft are less reliant on foreign inputs, but highly reliant on consumer health, which could be affected.

Robotaxi adoption is set to grow. Waymo and Tesla stand at the forefront of this technological shift, which offers both an opportunity and threat to ride-hailing vendors, Uber and Lyft.

A distant second in North American rideshare, Lyft lacks the scale and diversification to compete effectively with Uber.

Lyft reported earnings that missed management guidance on gross bookings and rides growth while also missing FactSet consensus expectations for top-line growth. The company also provided weak guidance for the first quarter. On a positive note, there was a slight improvement in gross and incremental margins—though these are notoriously volatile measurements—and Lyft announced a $500 million share repurchase program. However, the number of active riders and engagement (rides/rider) showed some deterioration in network effects, which supports our no-moat rating.

We are transferring coverage of Uber and Lyft, maintaining a narrow moat for Uber while downgrading Lyft to no-moat. As part of this update, we are changing the fair value estimate on Uber from $80 to $79 and the fair value estimate on Lyft from $20 to $16. The ride-hailing industry is at the cusp of a technological inflection point, with autonomous vehicles, or AVs (“robotaxis”), expected to play an increasingly impactful role. We believe that Uber is the only ride-hailing company with a vast network and critical mass. As such, Uber presents a strong value proposition to potential AV partners that are looking to drive utilization.

A distant second in North American ride-hailing, Lyft lacks the scale and diversification to compete effectively with Uber.