Company Reports

Fox has navigated the TV industry’s evolution much differently than legacy-media peers, and its business has been far more resilient and stronger financially. Its planned Roku acquisition marks a major bet on the evolution to streaming, though still executed differently than peers.

Fox's fiscal fourth-quarter revenue was up a stunning 28% year over year on an even more stunning 78% rise in advertising revenue, mostly due to World Cup viewership. Even apart from this nonrecurring catalyst (though it will be present in the fiscal first quarter), Fox's business is very healthy.

Fox undertook a different strategy from the biggest traditional-media peers, and its business has been far more resilient and much stronger financially as a result. The plan to acquire Roku is as prepared as it can be for the demise of traditional pay TV, still in a different manner than peers have chosen.

Excluding sales associated with the Super Bowl that Fox broadcast in 2025, we estimate fiscal third-quarter sales were up double digits year over year as the firm continues to shrug off industry headwinds and realize a material contribution from digital revenue sources.

Fox's strategy differs from that of its largest traditional media peers, and its business has been far more resilient as a result. Its dependence on the traditional pay-TV bundle is a long-term threat, but its recent greater emphasis on streaming is encouraging.

Despite a year-over-year comparison that included political advertising in a presidential year, Fox's fiscal second-quarter revenue were up 2%, including 1.4% growth in advertising sales. However, adjusted EBITDA declined by $90 million, or 11%.

Fox Corp's strategy differs from that of its largest traditional media peers, and its business has been far more resilient as a result. Its dependence on the traditional pay TV bundle is a long-term threat, but its recent greater emphasis on streaming is encouraging.

Despite lacking political advertising, fiscal first-quarter ad revenue grew 6% year over year, and Fox continued to buck the secular decline in pay TV subscribers. Tubi is now a meaningful advertising contributor and generated a quarterly profit for the first time.

Fox reported an excellent fiscal fourth quarter, as its linear television networks continue to increase sales despite the shrinking pay TV market. With the Fox One subscription streaming service now set to launch on Aug. 21 and ongoing growth at Tubi, Fox's long-term prospects also look better.

Fox Corp's strategy differs from its biggest traditional media peers, and its business has been far more resilient as a result. Its dependence on the traditional pay TV bundle is a long-term threat, but its greater emphasis on streaming recently is encouraging.

Fox's fiscal third-quarter revenue unsurprisingly spiked due to Super Bowl advertising, but beneath the surface, sales trends remained remarkably strong. Higher carriage rates are more than offsetting fewer pay-TV subscribers, and strong viewership on the firm's networks is supporting advertising.

Fox’s strategy differs from its biggest traditional media peers, and its business has been far more resilient as a result. Although it has outperformed in the past few years, we think its dependence on the traditional pay-TV bundle for nearly all its revenue is problematic over the long term.

Fox's fiscal second-quarter advertising revenue growth was unsurprisingly strong given the presidential election cycle, but continued strength in affiliate renewals despite cord cutting borders on incredible. The firm announced the launch of a subscription streaming service, which seems suboptimal.

Fox’s strategy differs from its biggest traditional media peers, and its business has been far more resilient as a result. Although it has outperformed in the past few years, we think its dependence on the traditional pay-TV bundle for nearly all its revenue is problematic over the long term.

Walt Disney, Fox, and Warner Bros. Discovery announced that they are discontinuing their sports streaming joint venture, Venu. The service will never launch. This comes after the Jan. 6 news that Disney has agreed to acquire control of Fubo and allow Fubo to offer a sports streaming package.

Unsurprisingly, Fox’s fiscal-first-quarter revenue and profit growth were impressive, as the presidential election cycle has boosted viewership and advertising rates. Beneath the surface, Fox’s strategy to focus on news and sports has continued to pay off, as those categories’ importance to pay-TV distributors has persistently allowed Fox to collect a premium to offset the industry decline in subscribers. Fiscal 2025 is shaping up to be a banner year, as we expect record election-related spending, a higher-rated baseball postseason that culminated in a New York-Los Angeles World Series, and even better football ratings to propel the second quarter. The Super Bowl broadcast should drive the third quarter. We remain wary that a strategy dependent on linear television can thrive over the long term, however, and we don’t see a moat for Fox to ensure it can perpetually secure rights to must-have programming. We’re raising our fair value estimate to $45 from $43 based on near-term performance.

Fox’s strategy differs from its biggest traditional media peers, and its business has been far more resilient as a result. Although it has outperformed in the past few years, we think its dependence on the traditional pay-TV bundle for nearly all its revenue is problematic over the long term.

Fox’s strategy differs from its biggest traditional media peers, and its business has been far more resilient as a result. Although it has outperformed in the past few years, we think its dependence on the traditional pay-TV bundle for nearly all its revenue is problematic over the long term.

Fox’s strategy differs from its biggest traditional media peers, and its business has been far more resilient as a result. Although it has outperformed in the past few years, we think its dependence on the traditional pay-TV bundle for nearly all its revenue is problematic over the long term.

Fox concluded fiscal 2024 with a solid fourth quarter, as revenue grew and the adjusted EBITDA margin expanded. The firm continues to benefit from good ratings for linear news and sports programming, allowing pricing power that is offsetting the industry decline in pay-TV subscribers. With the upcoming presidential election season and the Super Bowl in February, growth should spike in fiscal 2025. We expect Fox’s business will continue to outperform the legacy operations of its competitors, but its narrow reliance on linear television gives it less to mitigate the industry’s decline in the coming years. We’re maintaining our $43 fair value estimate.