Company Reports

We are reaffirming our fair value estimates and economic moat ratings for US utilities after executives at the Electric Reliability Council of Texas on Tuesday forecast an extraordinary jump in electricity demand in the state during the next five years.

Vistra Energy is entering its second phase of life since exiting the Energy Future Holdings bankruptcy in 2016.

We plan to raise our $26 fair value estimate for Vistra about 10% after the company closed its $5.7 billion acquisition of Energy Harbor and reported $4.1 billion of adjusted EBITDA in 2023, slightly above our estimate. We are reaffirming our no-moat rating.

We are reaffirming our $26 per share fair value estimate for Vistra following a week of unusually cold weather across the U.S. that should boost the company's first-quarter earnings. We are reaffirming our no-moat and High Uncertainty ratings.

We are reaffirming our $26 per share fair value estimate for Vistra after reviewing the outlook for this winter in the Texas power markets. We are reaffirming our no-moat and High Uncertainty ratings.

We are reaffirming our $26 per share fair value estimate for Vistra after it reported $1.6 billion of adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter, up from $1.0 billion in the third quarter of 2022. Results are on track to meet our full-year estimate. We are reaffirming our no-moat rating.

We are reaffirming our fair value estimates of $37 per share for NRG Energy and $26 per share for Vistra after a month of tight supply/demand conditions on the Texas power grid. We are also reaffirming our no-moat and High Uncertainty Ratings for both companies.

Vistra Energy is entering its second phase of life since exiting the Energy Future Holdings bankruptcy in 2016.

We are reaffirming our $24 fair value estimate for Vistra after the company reported $1.0 billion in adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter, up 33% from the second quarter of 2022. Results are on track to meet our full-year outlook. We are reaffirming our no-moat rating.

After exiting the Energy Future Holdings bankruptcy in 2016, Vistra Energy now is entering its second phase of life. The $5.7 billion acquisition of Energy Harbor and the restructuring announced in March 2023 pave a strategic path to becoming a leading energy player in markets outside of Texas and boosts its clean energy credentials.

We are reaffirming our $24 fair value estimate for Vistra after the company reported $554 million in adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter, mostly flat with the first quarter of 2022. Results are on track to meet our full-year outlook. We are reaffirming our no-moat and negative moat trend ratings.

We are reaffirming our fair value estimates for NRG Energy ($37 per share) and Vistra Energy ($24) after the Texas grid operator, ERCOT, released its summer seasonal outlook. We are reaffirming our no-moat and High Uncertainty Ratings for both companies.

Vistra Energy is entering what we consider its second phase of life after exiting the Energy Future Holdings bankruptcy in 2016. The acquisition of Energy Harbor for more than $5 billion and the restructuring announced in March 2023 paves a strategic path to becoming a clean energy company.

We plan to raise our Vistra fair value estimate by $1 per share after the company announced the acquisition of privately held Energy Harbor for an estimated $5.7 billion, including debt, and a restructuring that will split Vistra into two stand-alone businesses. The transaction doesn't change our no-moat rating.

We are reaffirming our $23 fair value estimate for Vistra Corp. after the company reported $3.1 billion adjusted EBITDA in 2022, in line with our forecast and management's guidance range. We are reaffirming our no-moat and negative moat trend ratings.

We are reaffirming our fair value estimates for NRG Energy ($37 per share) and Vistra Energy ($23) after the Texas Public Utilities Commission sent the state legislature a plan to revamp the state's electricity markets. We are reaffirming our no-moat and High Uncertainty ratings. Both stocks trade below our fair value estimates as of Jan. 23.

Vistra Energy's emergence from the Energy Future Holdings bankruptcy in 2016 has been a success for the most part. The company has produced solid returns through volatile commodity markets while diversifying into retail and clean energy businesses. The only significant bump in the road was winter storm Uri that hit Texas in February 2021, causing more than $2 billion of gross losses.

We are reaffirming our $23 fair value estimate for Vistra Energy as momentum builds for a new system of reliability payments that would go to Texas generators like Vistra. We are reaffirming our no-moat, High Uncertainty, and stable moat trend ratings.

We are reaffirming our $23 fair value estimate for Vistra Energy after the Texas grid operator, ERCOT, released its winter seasonal outlook and long-term reliability forecast. We are reaffirming our no-moat, stable moat trend, and High Uncertainty Ratings.

We are reaffirming our $23 fair value estimate for Vistra Corp. after the company reported $1.04 billion adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter and management tightened its 2022 full-year EBITDA guidance range to $3.0 billion-$3.2 billion, near the high end of its initial guidance range and in line with our forecast. We are reaffirming our no-moat and negative moat trend ratings.