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Stock Analyst Note

Phillips 66’s first-quarter 2026 earnings topped expectations, as refining performed better than what was guided to a few weeks ago. Volatility during the quarter resulted in $839 million in mark-to-market hedging pretax losses, a large working capital build, and an increase in short-term debt.
Company Report

Phillips 66 offers greater diversification than competitors, with its substantial marketing, chemical, and midstream assets. While refining primarily drives near-term earnings, management prioritizes midstream growth.
Stock Analyst Note

Phillips 66's third-quarter earnings exceeded market expectations despite falling sharply from the year before due to weakened refining results. Otherwise, performance was strong thanks to nonrefining segments, the realization of midstream synergy targets, and cost reductions.
Stock Analyst Note

Phillips 66 reported second-quarter adjusted earnings of $984 million versus $1.8 billion a year ago, surpassing market expectations. A steep decline in refining earnings was largely the reason for the decline, as refining margins weakened during the quarter from the year before, falling toward midcycle levels. The midstream and chemicals segments registered earnings increases, while marketing-segment earnings fell from a year ago. Adjusted earnings for the refining segment fell to $302 million from $1.2 billion a year ago on a decrease in realized margins to $10.01 per barrel, from $15.55/bbl a year ago. Capture rates deteriorated to 64% during the quarter from 70% in the first quarter. We still expect performance to improve in the long term, as Phillips 66 has projects underway to improve capture by 5% by 2025.
Company Report

Phillips 66 remains the most diversified independent refiner with greater interests in marketing, chemical, and midstream assets than peers. While the performance of its refining segment will be the primary determinant of earnings in the near term, the midstream segment will increasingly be the value driver over time as Phillips 66 aims to grow its potential midcycle EBITDA by $4 billion (initially $3 billion) to $14 billion by 2025.
Stock Analyst Note

Phillips 66 reported first-quarter adjusted earnings of $822 million versus $2.0 billion a year ago, falling short of market expectations. A sharp drop in refining earnings was largely the reason for the decline, although the midstream and marketing segments also reported declines. Adjusted earnings for the refining segment fell to $228 million from $1.6 billion a year ago on a decrease in realized margins to $10.91 per barrel, from $20.72/bbl a year ago, which was due in part to a weaker capture rate of 69% during the quarter. Ongoing conversion of the Rodeo facility to produce biofuels played a role—that project is due for completion later this year—and as such, we expect Phillips 66 to register improvements in the future given projects underway to improve capture by 5% by 2025.
Company Report

Phillips 66 remains the most diversified independent refiner with greater interests in marketing, chemical, and midstream assets than peers. While the performance of its refining segment will be the primary determinant of earnings in the near term, the midstream segment will increasingly be the value driver over time as Phillips 66 aims to grow its potential midcycle EBITDA by $4 billion (initially $3 billion) to $14 billion by 2025.
Stock Analyst Note

Phillips 66 reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.4 billion versus $1.9 billion a year ago, exceeding market expectations. A decline in refining margins from the year before was the primary culprit for the earnings decline as most of the other segments reported gains. Adjusted earnings for the refining segment fell to $797 million from $1.6 billion a year ago on a decrease in realized margins to $14.41 per barrel, from $19.73/bbl a year ago. However, the margin capture rate was an impressive 107% on a mix of favorable market conditions and commercial execution. These levels probably won’t be maintained in the near term, but Phillips 66 should see improvement over time, given projects underway to improve capture by 5% by 2025.

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