Company Reports

We expect the medium- and long-term strategic focus for Car Group to revolve around functional and geographic expansion. We also expect the company to focus on incorporating AI-powered conversational search throughout its websites.

CAR Group shares jumped 10% on 2026 full results, which showed pro forma EBITDA up 12% in constant currency to AUD 700 million, driven by 12% revenue growth and flat margins.

Car Group shares have sold off around 25% from a year ago on fears of technological disruption from artificial intelligence. We have analyzed the AI threat in detail and revisited our thesis.

We expect the medium- and long-term strategic focus for Car Group to revolve around functional and geographic expansion. We also expect the company to focus on incorporating AI-powered conversational search into its websites.

We expect the medium- and long-term strategic focus for Car Group to revolve around functional and geographic expansion.

CAR Group's first-half pro forma EBITDA grew 12%, with revenue growing 13% in constant currency, offset by slightly faster-growing spending, including on artificial intelligence. Shares jumped sharply on the result.

The S&P/ASX 200 technology sector has fallen 20% over the past month, as investors re-evaluate lofty returns and earnings expectations. We take this opportunity to evaluate long-term returns across our Australian tech coverage through the lens of a company's reinvestment runway.

We expect the medium- and long-term strategic focus for Car Group to revolve around functional and geographic expansion.

Car Group increased fiscal 2025 pro forma EBITDA and pro forma revenue, excluding the exited tyres business, by 12% in constant currency. The North American Trader Interactive business reaccelerated growth but with slightly softer margins. Shares were flat on the day.

Car Group has announced that its CEO, Cameron McIntyre, will be stepping down in August 2025. It also flagged fiscal 2025 group reported revenue and EBITDA to be approximately AUD 1.182 billion and AUD 620 million, respectively.

Autonomous vehicle developments are accelerating, with Tesla's robotaxi launch slated for 2025, Waymo's self-driving fleet expanding to new cities, and rising competition from China. We revisit self-driving risks to Car Group's core marketplace, which relies on private vehicle ownership.

We expect the medium- and long-term strategic focus for Car Group to revolve around functional and geographic expansion.

We expect the medium and long-term strategic focus for Car Group to revolve around functional and geographic expansion.

We maintain our AUD 30 per share fair value estimate for narrow-moat Car Group following first-half results. Revenue from the company’s second-largest segment, North American nonautomotive marketplace Trader Interactive, is tracking below prior guidance and market expectations, which caused shares to sell off sharply. However, the company’s Latin American automotive marketplace, Webmotors, was stronger than our expectations. On balance, we see no reason to change our fair value estimate. At current prices, Car Group shares continue to screen as overvalued.

Recently, there have been a variety of developments that affect the likelihood of autonomous vehicles, or AVs, coming to the broader market. The most significant development, in our view, has been the reelection of Donald Trump to the US presidency in November 2024. The incoming administration is expected to introduce a federal framework for AVs with the goal of fast-tracking AV adoption.

We expect the medium and long-term strategic focus for Car Group to revolve around functional and geographic expansion.

Following its fiscal 2024 results, we increase our fair value estimate for narrow-moat Car Group by 7% to AUD 29 per share. The company reported AUD 250 million in net profit aftertax, exceeding our AUD 240 million forecast, mostly due to top-line outperformance. The company continues to capture a larger share of the car retailing value chain, which warrants updates to our assumptions.

We expect the medium and long-term strategic focus for Car Group to revolve around functional and geographic expansion.

We raise our fair value estimate for narrow-moat Car Group by 4% to AUD 27 per share following a review of its Brazil business, Webmotors. Our review was prompted by the recent announcement by narrow-moat Seek to exit Brazil and Mexico, following more than a decade of unsuccessful attempts to enter the market. We had expected Seek to be unsuccessful in the region, while we expected and continue to expect Car Group to be successful there due to differences in network effect dynamics. Following our review, we are upgrading our revenue growth and margin expansion assumptions for Car Group’s Latin American segment. At current prices, Car Group’s shares continue to screen as materially overvalued.

We expect the medium and long-term strategic focus for Car Group to revolve around functional and geographic expansion.