Company Reports

We will discontinue analyst coverage of Green Thumb Industries on or about April 20.

Green Thumb's fourth-quarter revenue grew 5.7% year over year to $311 million, benefitting from the September launch of adult-use sales in Minnesota. However, price compression remains a headwind, with comparable sales down 1.8%.

On Dec. 18, President Trump signed an executive order directing federal agencies to lower cannabis' status to Schedule III from Schedule I. This follows a Washington Post report last week that signalled the move would be coming soon.

On Dec. 11, the Washington Post reported that President Donald Trump would issue an executive order to reclassify cannabis to Schedule III from Schedule I as soon as next week. Federal agencies would then begin the process, though it could take six months to a year for the rule to go into effect.

Green Thumb Industries cultivates and sells medicinal and recreational cannabis through wholesale and retail channels in the US. Unlike its Canadian peers, the firm is more vertically integrated, as it owns dispensaries in addition to the cultivation and processing of value-added products. It has a presence in 14 states through 20 production facilities, and 108 dispensaries, but lacks a moat as all cannabis producers do, in our view. In states with more mature cannabis markets, Green Thumb believes there are enough cultivators available and purchases cannabis from third parties. This helps reduce capital intensity for expansion without sacrificing exposure to widening legalization.

On Nov. 10, the US Senate passed a funding bill that included a provision banning the sale of hemp-derived products that include more than 0.4 milligrams of THC. This would potentially halt the sale of gray-market delta-8 and delta-9 as well as popular THC beverages produced by craft brewers.

Green Thumb's third-quarter revenue grew 1.6% year over year to $291 million. Consumer packaged goods revenue was up 8% while retail revenue declined by 1%. Results benefited from the continued expansion of adult-use markets, but comparable retail sales declined 7.1% on price compression.

On Sept. 29, shares of Curaleaf were up more than 30%, Green Thumb up nearly 20%, and Tilray up more than 50%. The rally followed President Donald Trump's social media repost of a video touting the benefits of CBD for the elderly.

Green Thumb's second-quarter revenue grew 4.7% year over year to $293 million. Overall retail revenue was up 0.3% but comparable sales were down 4.1%, weighed down by continued price compression. Sales growth came entirely from consumer packaged goods, up 8.4%.

Green Thumb Industries cultivates and sells medicinal and recreational cannabis through wholesale and retail channels in the US. Unlike its Canadian peers, the firm is more vertically integrated, as it owns dispensaries in addition to the cultivation and processing of value-added products. It has a presence in 14 states through 20 production facilities, and 105 dispensaries, but lacks a moat as all cannabis producers do, in our view. In states with more mature cannabis markets, Green Thumb believes there are enough cultivators available and purchases cannabis from third parties. This helps reduce capital intensity for expansion without sacrificing exposure to widening legalization.

Shares of Curaleaf were up 22%, Green Thumb up 9%, and Tilray down 6% on July 10. The optimism behind this rally seems to stem from political influencers pushing a viral campaign for rescheduling cannabis to a lower classification than its current Schedule I classification in the US.

Green Thumb Industries cultivates and sells medicinal and recreational cannabis through wholesale and retail channels in the US. Unlike its Canadian peers, the firm is more vertically integrated, as it owns dispensaries in addition to the cultivation and processing of value-added products. It has a presence in 14 states through 20 production facilities, and 104 dispensaries, but lacks a moat as all cannabis producers do, in our view. In states with more mature cannabis markets, Green Thumb believes there are enough cultivators available and purchases cannabis from third parties. This helps reduce capital intensity for expansion without sacrificing exposure to widening legalization.

Green Thumb's first-quarter revenue grew 1% year over year to $280 million. Overall retail revenue and comparable sales were down 2.5% and 5.3%, respectively, due to ongoing price compression. This led adjusted EBITDA margins to contract 230 basis points to 30.5%.

Green Thumb Industries cultivates and sells medicinal and recreational cannabis through wholesale and retail channels in the US. Unlike its Canadian peers, the firm is more vertically integrated, as it owns dispensaries in addition to the cultivation and processing of value-added products. It has a presence in 14 states through 20 production facilities, and more than 100 dispensaries. In states with more mature cannabis markets, Green Thumb believes there are enough cultivators available and purchases cannabis from third parties. This helps reduce capital intensity for expansion without sacrificing exposure to widening legalization.

Green Thumb's fourth-quarter revenue grew 6% year over year to USD 294 million, mostly on the start of adult-use sales in Ohio and opening 10 stores. Comparable-store sales declined 2.6% amid continued price compression, though cost-cutting helped adjusted EBITDA margin widen by 70 basis points.

Revenue growth for US multistate operator Green Thumb has slowed to single digits in recent quarters. Headwinds, including hemp-derived delta-8, a resilient illicit market, price compression, and slower incremental state legalization expansion, have weighed on sales.

Green Thumb Industries cultivates and sells medicinal and recreational cannabis through wholesale and retail channels in the US. Unlike its Canadian peers, the firm is more vertically integrated, as it owns dispensaries in addition to the cultivation and processing of value-added products. It has a presence in 14 states through 20 production facilities, and 97 dispensaries. In states with more mature cannabis markets, Green Thumb believes there are enough cultivators available and purchases cannabis from third parties. This helps reduce capital intensity for expansion without sacrificing exposure to widening legalization.

Revenue growth for US multistate operators, or MSOs, Curaleaf and Green Thumb has been flat to low-single-digit percentages in the last several quarters and legal market growth has underwhelmed, compounded by slowed expansion of legalization.

Green Thumb's decent quarter was overshadowed by the US election, which included unfavorable voting results for the cannabis industry. Revenue increased 2% sequentially to $287 million, though adjusted EBITDA margin retreated slightly to 31%.

The 2024 US elections results weren't great for cannabis, leading to double-digit sector stock drops. Vice President Harris, who had stated intentions to legalize recreational use nationally, lost to Donald Trump. Meanwhile, three of four state legalization referendums also failed.