Company Reports

We maintain our $28 (CAD 38) fair value estimate for Brookfield Renewable Partners following third-quarter results. Additionally, we maintain our $29 (CAD 39) fair value estimate for Brookfield Renewable Corp. We view shares as slightly undervalued. Our no-moat ratings are also unchanged.

Clean energy stocks have had a roller-coaster 18 months. Optimism following the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act in August 2022 gave way to rising interest rates in 2023. We highlight three key themes for investors to focus on in 2024: interest rates, U.S. policy, and profitability.

On Dec. 4 shareholders of Origin Energy rejected a Brookfield-led takeover proposal. The final vote tally was 69% in favor, below the 75% threshold required. The failed vote is not a major surprise following news that AustralianSuper, which owns about 17% of Origin, was opposed to the deal. In its response, Brookfield noted it will "evaluate its next steps" and hinted it remains interested in a potential deal. We would not rule out continued interest from Brookfield in a deal but also expect the company to weigh further consideration against alternative investment options for the company's capital. We would expect the company to find other investment opportunities in the event it walks away from Origin for good and, thus, don't expect the ultimate Origin outcome to materially affect our fair value estimate.

Brookfield Renewable holds a well-diversified global portfolio of clean energy technologies assets. The company targets 12%-15% returns via a combination of organic growth and acquisitions. Brookfield takes a primarily contrarian approach to acquisitions.

We maintain our $31 (CAD 42) fair value estimate for Brookfield Renewable Partners following third-quarter results. Additionally, we maintain our $32 (CAD 43) fair value estimate for Brookfield Renewable Corp. We view shares as undervalued.

We lower our fair value estimate for Brookfield Renewable Partners to $31 (CAD 42) from $32 (CAD 43) following second-quarter results and after updating our model for recent transactions. Additionally, we lower our fair value for Brookfield Renewable Corp. to $32 (CAD 43) from $33 (CAD 44). We view shares as undervalued.

Brookfield Renewable holds a well-diversified global portfolio of clean energy technologies assets. The company targets 12%-15% returns via a combination of organic growth and mergers and acquisitions. Brookfield takes a primarily contrarian approach to M&A.

We expect to maintain our $32 (CAD 43) and $33 (CAD 44) fair value estimates for Brookfield Renewable and Brookfield Renewable Corp., respectively, following the acquisition of a renewable portfolio from Duke Energy. We view shares as fairly valued.

We maintain our $32 (CAD 43) fair value estimate for Brookfield Renewable Partners and $33 (CAD 44) for Brookfield Renewable Corp. following first-quarter results. We view shares as fairly valued at current levels.

We do not plan to materially change our fair value estimate for Brookfield Renewable following the announcement that the company, along with an EIG consortium, has signed a binding agreement to acquire Australia-based Origin Energy. We view the shares of Brookfield Renewable as slightly undervalued at current levels.

We lower our fair value estimate for Brookfield Renewable to $32 (CAD 43) per share from $33 (CAD 45) following its fourth-quarter results. The primary driver of our lower fair value estimate is a slightly lower terminal multiple as we adjust for Brookfield Renewable's growing share of energy transition investments. We view shares as undervalued at current levels.

Brookfield Renewable holds a well-diversified global portfolio of clean energy technologies assets. The company targets 12%-15% returns via a combination of organic growth and mergers and acquisitions. Brookfield utilizes a primarily contrarian approach to M&A.

We lower our fair value estimate for Brookfield Renewable to $33 (CAD 45) per share from $36 (CAD 46.50) following its third-quarter results. The primary driver of our lower fair value estimate is higher discount rates we apply to the company's asset values in our valuation. As an owner of long-duration renewable energy assets, interest rates are a key determinant of asset value. We view shares as slightly undervalued at current levels.

Brookfield Renewable holds a well-diversified global portfolio of clean energy technologies assets. The company targets 12%-15% returns via a combination of organic growth and mergers and acquisitions. Brookfield utilizes a primarily contrarian approach to M&A.

We maintain our $36/CAD 46.50 fair value estimate for Brookfield Renewable Partners following the company's investor day. We view the shares as increasingly attractive after their recent selloff.

We raise our fair value estimate for Brookfield Renewable to $36 (CAD 46.50) per share from $34 (CAD 44) following its second-quarter results. The primary drivers of our increase are higher power prices for its U.S. hydro portfolio and increasing our terminal multiple for upside potential from U.S. policy. We also update our Uncertainty Rating to Medium from High given the company's largely contracted portfolio and diversification.

Brookfield Renewable holds a well-diversified portfolio of 21 gigawatts consolidated across clean energy technologies and geographies. The company targets 12%-15% returns via a combination of organic growth and mergers and acquisitions. Brookfield utilizes a primarily contrarian approach to M&A.

Less than two weeks after seemingly ending prospects of a climate spending bill, Sen. Joe Manchin and Senate Democrats announced support for the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. While not final, the chances of ultimate passage appear high based on industry reports.

On July 14, U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin, Democrat from West Virginia, indicated that he would not support a reconciliation package with additional climate incentives, seemingly ending the uncertainty of much of the past year. The rumored clean energy package had recently been pegged at around $300 billion and included extensions of existing tax credits for wind and solar as well as potential credits for newer technologies, such as hydrogen, stand-alone energy storage, and support for existing nuclear plants. Incentives for domestic solar manufacturing and electric vehicles were also contemplated.

Solar stocks are set to jump on June 6 after reports the Biden administration will announce actions to alleviate uncertainty associated with tariffs on imported solar panels. The Biden administration is expected to provide a two-year halt to new solar tariffs, allowing much-needed near-term certainty for developers. We note many industry participants have delayed projects as they awaited clarity on the tariffs. Additionally, Biden plans to use the Defense Production Act to provide support for U.S.-made solar panels. We view these actions as aimed at balancing continued buildout of solar projects in the near term to support decarbonization goals, while looking to increase U.S. solar manufacturing over time.