Stock Analyst Note
Tokio Marine Earnings: Lifting Estimates and Fair Value, but Share Price Reflects Premium
The December-quarter earnings for Japan’s leading insurers Tokio Marine and MS&AD reflect a solid performance in their nonlife profit, and for MS&AD, a surprisingly strong performance at its overseas business Amlin. We think the impact of higher prices is flowing through to their bottom lines, and this is also now being seen at Amlin. We raise our fair value estimate for MS&AD to JPY 5,800 from JPY 5,000 and for Tokio Marine to JPY 3,400 from JPY 3,300. We think the positive trends are reflected in current share prices, especially for Tokio Marine, which continues to trade at 3 times price/book. MS&AD trades on 1 time price/book and the market is pushing its share price higher on the positive earnings surprise. We think both insurers are expensive at current share prices.