Company Reports

URW reported 2026 first-half earnings that broadly met the markets and our expectations, with shopping centers achieving 4.5% like-for-like net rental income growth on record low vacancy rates. Guidance for 2026 adjusted recurring earnings per share between EUR 9.15-EUR 9.30 was reaffirmed.

We’re initiating coverage of Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield, the shopping center REIT.

Since acquiring Westfield in 2018, Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield has focused on aggressive deleveraging to repair its balance sheet. After shareholders rejected a proposed capital raise in 2020, the group pivoted toward an asset disposal program. Between 2021 and 2024, URW achieved EUR 6.4 billion in disposals, bringing net debt/EBITDA from 16 times in 2020 to 9.5 times. In 2025, URW completed or secured a further EUR 2.2 billion of disposals, bringing its net debt/EBITDA to 9.1 times and its loan/value to 42%. By 2028, URW is targeting net debt/EBITDA of 8.0 times and a loan/value of 40%.

As foreshadowed in our research report published on July 5, 2024, we cease coverage on Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield. We provide analyst research and ratings on more than 1,600 companies globally and periodically adjust our coverage according to client demand, investor interest, and staffing.

We will discontinue analyst coverage of Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield, or URW, on or about July 26, 2024. Accordingly, we place URW under review. We provide analyst research and ratings on over 1,600 companies globally and periodically adjust our coverage according to investor interest and staffing.

Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield was formed in 1968, acquiring several large malls through to 1995 and offices thereafter. In 2000 it launched a conventions and exhibitions business and is now a European leader in the sector. In 2007 Unibail merged with Rodamco, becoming the largest retail REIT in continental Europe.

No-moat Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield secured only EUR 200 million of net debt reduction so far in 2024 via the sale of Equinoccio in Spain and an agreement signed for the disposal of Westfield Oakridge in the United States. Executing disposals at sufficient prices to pay off debt is critical for our URW valuation, and as such, we maintain a High Uncertainty Rating for this REIT. Nevertheless, URW has time up its sleeve, and news revealed in a strong March-quarter trading update supports our view. URW securities remain undervalued, trading 19% below our fair value estimate of EUR 95.50 per security (AUD 7.80 for the Australian-listed securities). However, after an 83% rally from the lows in October 2023, they aren’t as cheap as they were.

Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield was formed in 1968, acquiring several large malls through to 1995 and offices thereafter. In 2000 it launched a conventions and exhibitions business and is now a European leader in the sector. In 2007 Unibail merged with Rodamco, becoming the largest retail REIT in continental Europe.

No-moat Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield posted 2023 adjusted recurring EPS up 3.3% to EUR 9.62, driven mainly by the ongoing recovery in retail and office rents, and lower expenses. That growth was despite EUR 1 billion in asset disposals in 2023 (about 2% of URW’s asset portfolio). Our 2024 adjusted recurring EPS estimate of EUR 9.73 is at the midpoint of management’s guidance range of EUR 9.65 to EUR 9.80 per share, with earnings growth likely to once again be strong enough to offset asset disposals in 2024. Disposals may include EUR 1 billion of assets where management is in active discussions with buyers. URW remains committed to a “radical reduction” of exposure to the EUR 9.5 billion of U.S. assets, or about a fifth of its entire property portfolio.

Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield was formed in 1968, acquiring several large malls through to 1995 and offices thereafter. In 2000 it launched a conventions and exhibitions business and is now a European leader in the sector. In 2007 Unibail merged with Rodamco, becoming the largest retail REIT in continental Europe.

Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield was formed in 1968, acquiring several large malls through to 1995 and offices thereafter. In 2000 it launched a conventions and exhibitions business and is now a European leader in the sector. In 2007 Unibail merged with Rodamco, becoming the largest retail REIT in continental Europe.

A September-quarter trading update from no-moat Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield, or URW, supports our view that the REIT’s recovery is on track. Despite a 37% rally since late October, URW securities still screen as undervalued, versus our unchanged EUR 95.50 fair value estimate (AUD 7.80 per Australian-listed Chess depositary interest).

Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield was formed in 1968, acquiring several large malls through to 1995 and offices thereafter. In 2000 it launched a conventions and exhibitions business and is now a European leader in the sector. In 2007 Unibail merged with Rodamco, becoming the largest retail REIT in continental Europe.

Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield’s half-year result was in line with our expectations. Management reaffirmed that it expects full-year adjusted recurring earnings per security, or AREPS, toward the upper end of the previously communicated EUR 9.30 to EUR 9.50 guidance range. That’s consistent with our unchanged estimate of EUR 9.50. We reaffirm our EUR 95.50 fair value estimate (AUD 7.80 for the Australian chess depositary instruments). Despite a 20% rally since the end of May 2023, the stock screens as undervalued.

No-moat Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield announced on July 21 that it has sold the Westfield Mission Valley Shopping Centres for USD 290 million—a 12% discount to the last unaffected appraisal value. This is yet another transaction that we think shows the market is too bearish on this REIT. URW securities trade at a massive 55% discount to the group's EUR 121 in net tangible assets and a 45% discount to our unchanged EUR 95.50 fair value estimate (AUD 7.80 for the Australia-listed chess depositary interests). We think the market is overestimating the risk of a dilutive equity raise, which looks less likely with every asset that is sold for a decent price. Despite a 32% rally since October 2022, URW securities screen as substantially undervalued.

Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield was formed in 1968, acquiring several large malls through to 1995 and offices thereafter. In 2000 it launched a conventions and exhibitions business and is now a European leader in the sector. In 2007 Unibail merged with Rodamco, becoming the largest retail REIT in continental Europe.

Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield continues to sell assets near book value. That’s despite URW securities trading at a massive 65% discount to the group's EUR 121 in net tangible assets and a 55% discount to our unchanged EUR 95.50 fair value estimate (AUD 7.80 for the Australia-listed chess depositary interests). It doesn’t make sense for URW to trade at such a big discount unless it is forced into a dilutive equity raise. Our base case is that won’t be required. With URW at a 4.2 times interest coverage ratio and interest costs near 100% hedged for several years, we think the group can grind down its debt burden even without asset sales.

Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield was formed in 1968, acquiring several large malls through to 1995 and offices thereafter. In 2000 it launched a conventions and exhibitions business and is now a European leader in the sector. In 2007 Unibail merged with Rodamco, becoming the largest retail REIT in continental Europe.

A solid first-quarter-2023 trading update from no-moat Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield, or URW, reaffirms our thesis that URW securities are significantly undervalued. We maintain our EUR 95.50 fair value estimate (AUD 7.80 for the Australian-listed chess depositary interests).

Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield, or URW, was formed in 1968, acquiring several large malls through to 1995, and offices thereafter. In 2000 it launched a conventions and exhibitions business and is now a European leader in the sector. In 2007 Unibail merged with Rodamco, becoming the largest retail REIT in continental Europe.