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Company Report

Bank of Ningbo, or BONB, boasts some of the best profitability metrics among peers and above-peer growth over the past decade, due to a differentiated business strategy and extensive branch network in the most affluent areas in China.
Company Report

Bank of Ningbo, or BONB, boasts some of the best profitability metrics among peers and above-peers growth over the past decade, due to a differentiated business strategy and extensive branch network in the most affluent areas in China.
Company Report

Bank of Ningbo, or BONB, boasts some of the best profitability metrics among peers and above-peers growth over the past decade thanks to a differentiated business strategy and extensive branch network in the most affluent areas in China.
Stock Analyst Note

No-moat Bank of Ningbo, or BONB, reported steady year-on-year revenue growth of 7.4% and accelerated net profit growth of 7.0% in the third quarter. The year-to-date net interest margin, or NIM, remained resilient at 1.85%, reflecting a narrower year-on-year contraction of 3 basis points. Given that results were largely in line with expectations, we retain our fair value estimate of CNY 27 per share. The stock is fairly valued at nearly 0.9 times the 2024 book value. As a leading retail bank, BONB is sensitive to the consumer credit cycle. Its above-peer growth potential fueled by strong demand in the Yangtze River Delta and its high ROE should justify a valuation premium. However, we see limited further upside for the stock currently as net profit growth faces credit quality pressures, despite robust loan growth. The stock is currently offering a 2.3% yield on its 16% dividend payout ratio, one of the lowest among large Chinese banks. We do not expect a payout ratio increase in 2024, given the ongoing 15% and 20% year-on-year growth in total assets and loans, which has reduced the year-to-date return on equity by 1.5 percentage points to 14.9%.
Stock Analyst Note

We retain fair value estimates for Bank of Communications, or BoCom, at HKD 6.0, China Merchants Bank, or CMB, at HKD 48, China Citic Bank, or Citic, at HKD 5.7, and China Minsheng Bank, or CMBC, at HKD 3.6 per H share. For Bank of Ningbo, or BONB, the FVE is CNY 27 per A share. The banks' interim results aligned with our expectations for net profit growth ranging from flat to low single digits in 2024. H shares of these banks appear undervalued, trading between 0.2 times-0.7 times 2024 book value, with attractive dividend yields of 6.5%-8.5%, except for BONB, with 3% dividend yield in A stock market. Despite weak net interest margin, or NIM, for CMB, we favor it due to its superior return on equity, steady dividends, and upside potential if consumer sentiment in China recovers.
Stock Analyst Note

No-moat Bank of Ningbo continued its momentum in the first quarter of 2024, delivering year-on-year growth in revenue and net profits of 5.8% and 10.1%, respectively, while most of its peers under our coverage reported declines in both metrics. The results highlight a smaller-than-expected decline in net interest margin, supported by strong growth in loans to small and midsize enterprises, and weaker-than-expected fee income, which resulted from fee reduction in sales of financial products. We thus lift our 2024 NIM forecast by 3 basis points to 1.60% and lower our fee income growth projection by 6 percentage points to negative 10%. Our outlook for full-year 2024 net profit growth remains unchanged at 9%.
Stock Analyst Note

We reduced our fair value estimate for Bank of Ningbo, or BONB, to CNY 27 per share from CNY 32 to reflect a more challenging credit quality outlook and fee income pressure. The pickup in fourth-quarter net interest income growth is a surprise, driven by strong loan growth in the past quarter that contributed nearly 18% of 2023 new loans. The 1-basis-point sequential decline in net interest margin, or NIM, to 1.88% also beats our expectation. The above-peer growth was achieved by BONB’s rapid loan expansion underpinned by relatively high-risk categories, including loans to property developers, retail consumption, and business service sectors, which contributed 65% of 2023 new loans. In particular, its consumer finance subsidiary contributed 17% of BONB’s 2023 new loans. As consumer finance companies typically serve smaller value borrowings for subprime borrowers, we are concerned that its increased exposure to consumption and real estate loans will weigh on its credit quality. Thus, we increased credit costs assumptions for the next three years by 8 to 12 basis points to reflect such risks. Consequently, we cut 2024-26 earnings forecasts by 5%-11%.
Company Report

Bank of Ningbo, or BONB, is the fifth largest city commercial bank in China, with some of the best profitability metrics among peers and above-peers growth over the past decade thanks to a differentiated business strategy and extensive branch network in the most affluent areas in China.

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