Company Reports

Stellantis recorded revenue growth of 13% in the second quarter, led by a strong volume recovery in North America. Adjusted operating income margin was 1.8% in the second quarter, up year over year but weaker sequentially. The lack of operational leverage in North America disappoints.

Antonio Filosa, Stellantis’ CEO as of June 2025, faces significant challenges. In the US, the group’s largest region, the company has lost close to 5% market share over the past five years (postcovid), the largest market share decline industrywide. In addition to other strategic missteps, the mismatch between the discontinuation and replacement of popular car models left wide gaps in its portfolio. With these market gaps expected to narrow toward the end of 2025, the first signs of a recovery are anticipated to follow. Similarly, in Europe, Stellantis has lost 5% market share over the same time frame. Again, this is the most significant decline in share among peers. Despite the rollout of numerous new models this year, volume performance remains weak. Our surveys show that certain Stellantis brands with new model launches are priced above competitor brands with similar specifications. Stellantis’ “third engine” continues to help offset volume losses elsewhere.

Antonio Filosa, Stellantis’ newly appointed CEO as of June 2025, faces significant challenges ahead. In the US, the group’s largest region, the company has lost close to 5% market share over the last five years (postcovid), the largest market share decline industrywide. In addition to other strategic missteps, the mismatch between the discontinuation and replacement of popular car models left wide gaps in its portfolio. With these market gaps expected to narrow toward the end of 2025, the first signs of a recovery are anticipated to follow. Similarly, in Europe, Stellantis has lost 5% market share over the same time frame. Again, this is the most significant decline in share among peers. Despite the rollout of numerous new models this year, volume performance remains weak. Our surveys show that certain Stellantis brands with new model launches are priced above competitor brands with similar specifications. Stellantis’ “third engine” continues to help offset volume losses elsewhere.

Stellantis showed early signs of recovery in the first quarter, with revenue growing 6% year over year, driven by a 12% increase in global deliveries. Adjusted operating margin reached 2.5%, in line with full-year guidance. That said, execution remained uneven, weighing on market sentiment.

Stellantis reported consolidated shipments in the first quarter of 2026 reached 1.36 million units, up 12% year over year and exceeding 2024 levels, with positive contributions from North America and Enlarged Europe. Deliveries in the Gulf countries fell by more than 50%.

Stellantis reported full-year results in line with preliminary figures. Fourth-quarter results showed a gradual improvement in North America, while challenges in Europe persisted. Guidance points to a sequential recovery, skewed to the second half of 2026.

Stellantis announced EUR 22.2 billion in charges related to a reset of its battery electric vehicle strategy to align with weaker-than-expected demand, including EUR 6.5 billion in cash outflows over the next four years. The 2026 dividend will be suspended. Shares were down 25% as of writing.

Antonia Filosa, Stellantis’ newly appointed CEO as of June 2025, faces significant challenges ahead. In the US, the group’s largest region, the company has lost close to 5% market share over the last five years (postcovid), the largest market share decline industrywide. In addition to other strategic missteps, the mismatch between the discontinuation and replacement of popular car models left wide gaps in its portfolio. With these market gaps expected to narrow toward the end of 2025, the first signs of a recovery are anticipated to follow. Similarly, in Europe, Stellantis has lost 5% market share over the same time frame. Again, this is the most significant decline in share among peers. Despite the rollout of numerous new models this year, volume performance remains weak. Our surveys show that certain Stellantis brands with new model launches are priced above competitor brands with similar specifications. Stellantis’ “third engine” continues to help offset volume losses elsewhere.

The European Union has softened its emission-reduction targets for the auto sector and initiated support for electric vehicle demand. By 2035, carmakers need to reduce emissions by 90%, down from the previous 100% target. For vans, the CO2 reduction target has been cut to 40% from 50% by 2030.

Stellantis reported 13% year-over-year growth in both shipments and revenue in the third quarter. However, this growth is off a depressed base, with shipments and revenue declining negative 20% and negative 27%, respectively, in the third quarter of 2024.

Stellantis has appointed Francesco Ciancia as the global head of manufacturing. He has been poached from Mercedes-Benz, where he headed the vans business and executed the transformation of its production footprint.

Stellantis' share price rose almost 10% after its recently appointed CEO, Antonio Filosa, reiterated his actionable plans at an investor conference, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced support for an affordable, European-made electric vehicle concept.

Antonia Filosa, Stellantis’ newly appointed CEO as of June 2025, faces significant challenges ahead. In the US, the group’s largest region, the company has lost close to 5% market share over the last five years (postcovid), the largest market share decline industrywide. In addition to other strategic missteps, the mismatch between the discontinuation and replacement of popular car models left wide gaps in its portfolio. With these market gaps expected to narrow toward the end of 2025, the first signs of a recovery are anticipated to follow. Similarly, in Europe, Stellantis has lost 5% market share over the same time frame. Again, this is the most significant decline in share among peers. Despite the rollout of numerous new models this year, volume performance remains weak. Our surveys show that certain Stellantis brands with new model launches are priced above competitor brands with similar specifications. Stellantis’ “third engine” continues to help offset volume losses elsewhere.

Revenue and adjusted operating income declined 13% and 94% for the half year, respectively. For the second half of the year, Stellantis expects revenue to exceed the first half, a low-single-digit adjusted operating income margin, and industrial free cash flow to improve sequentially.

The European Union and the US have reached a trade deal, setting the baseline tariff rate at 15% for imports from the EU, including autos.

Stellantis released preliminary results for the first half of 2025, citing a misalignment between consensus expectations and actual profitability levels. Shipments and revenue declined 6% and 13%, respectively, with an adjusted operating income of EUR 0.5 billion, a 94% year-over-year decline.

Stellantis reported a drop in revenue of 14% in the first quarter, led by a 9% volume decline, the annualizing of the rebasing of vehicle prices in North America in the second half of last year, and weaker pricing in South America. Full-year guidance has been suspended because of tariff uncertainty.

Despite continued US import tariff uncertainty looming over European automakers, we update our fair value estimates to reflect the average of several tariff outcomes. We also revise some of our long-term assumptions for Stellantis as we roll our model off its lower 2024 base.

Former Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares launched the company’s DARE 2030 strategy in 2022, which focused on delivering double-digit operating margins and making the firm the most profitable automotive original equipment manufacturer globally. At end-2023, Stellantis had an impressive EUR 8.4 billion in net cash synergies versus the EUR 5 billion it set out to achieve at the time of the merger. Adjusted operating margins were maintained at double digits for three consecutive years. The strategy initially seemed to be working, although we questioned the maintainability of spending ratios that had lower benchmarks than peers.

On April 2, US President Trump reaffirmed the implementation of a 25% worldwide import tariff on all automobiles and automobile parts imported into the US, with the exceptions related to the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, as initially announced on March 26. The automobile industry will not be subject to the reciprocal tariffs announced on April 2. Thus, we reaffirm our estimate of a negative impact of between 20% and 30% on our fair value estimates for no-moat auto original equipment manufacturers resulting from these tariffs. Despite the downward revisions under this scenario, we continue to believe that there is a sufficient margin of safety at current prices, as shares trade at a significant discount to our valuations. BMW and Mercedes export approximately 50% of their US production, which may be affected by retaliatory tariffs, possibly increasing the negative impact on our fair values.