Company Reports

Cheniere Energy Partners reported adjusted EBITDA of $983 million, well above the $870 million PitchBook consensus. Higher volumes and margins drove the outperformance, as global gas supply remains strained by the war in Iran. Bechtel was also contracted for the SPL phase 1 expansion.

Cheniere Energy Partners sits between North American natural gas producers and global liquefied natural gas consumers. It seeks to strike long-term purchase agreements with producers and consumers alike. These agreements allow the firm to lock in a consistent spread between the cost of gas and the fees it charges customers. Of the volumes Cheniere produces, 90% are linked to these arrangements. The agreements, in part pioneered by Cheniere, last two decades. Their long duration and strength give investors high confidence in their cash generation.

The master limited partnership will begin retaining cash in anticipation of an investment decision at Sabine Pass, capping potential distributions. On the call, CEO Jack Fusco stated that growth would more likely come to the Corpus Christi facility before Sabine Pass.

Cheniere Energy Partners sits between North American natural gas producers and global liquefied natural gas consumers. It seeks to strike long-term purchase agreements with producers and consumers alike. These agreements allow the firm to lock in a consistent spread between the cost of gas and the fees it charges customers. Of the volumes Cheniere produces, 90% are linked to these arrangements. The agreements, in part pioneered by Cheniere, last two decades. Their long duration and strength give investors high confidence in their cash generation.

Reuters reports that Qatar LNG will be fully shutting down. This forecloses the possibility of the few-day restart referenced in our prior note, which required the facility to remain "warm." It will now take weeks from the decision to restart, but no major damage has been reported either.

The US campaign has widened into a regional conflict, drawing in the assets and infrastructure of US-aligned Gulf states. Earlier this morning, Qatar shut down liquefied natural gas production after Iranian strikes expanded to Qatari energy infrastructure.

Cheniere Energy Partners sits between North American natural gas producers and global liquefied natural gas consumers. It seeks to strike long-term purchase agreements with producers and consumers alike. These agreements allow the firm to lock in a consistent spread between the cost of gas and the fees it charges customers. Of the volumes Cheniere produces, 90% are linked to these arrangements. The agreements, in part pioneered by Cheniere, last two decades. Their long duration and strength give investors high confidence in their cash generation.

Management communicated that the Sabine Pass expansion is awaiting permits for the final investment decision, having secured the necessary contracted volumes to move forward. We anticipate the additional train will come online in 2029, assuming a two-year FID-to-completion cadence.

The partnership posted earnings per unit 21% lower than FactSet consensus, $.80 versus $1.02, driven by changes in derivative fair value estimates. On the call, management signaled it expects regulatory approval for the Sabine Pass expansion by the end of the year.

Cheniere Energy Partners sits between North American natural gas producers and global liquefied natural gas consumers. It seeks to strike long-term purchase agreements with producers and consumers alike. These agreements allow the firm to lock in a consistent spread between the cost of gas and the fees it charges customers. Of the volumes Cheniere produces, 90% are linked to these arrangements. The agreements, in part pioneered by Cheniere, last two decades. Their long duration and strength give investors high confidence in their cash generation.

Planned maintenance during the quarter caused year-over-year declines in both net income and adjusted EBITDA; however, full-year guidance on distributions remains unchanged with a midpoint of $3.30 per unit. Unitholders also received an update regarding the Sabine Pass expansion.

We recently put Cheniere Energy Partners' units under review and revisited our long-term assumptions.

Cheniere Energy Partners sits between North American natural gas producers and global liquefied natural gas consumers. It seeks to strike long-term purchase agreements with producers and consumers alike. These agreements allow the firm to lock in a consistent spread between the cost of gas and the fees it charges customers. Of the volumes Cheniere produces, 90% are linked to these arrangements. The agreements, in part pioneered by Cheniere, last two decades. Their long duration and strength give investors high confidence in their cash generation.

We're placing Cheniere Energy and Cheniere Energy Partners under review after reviewing our model and the calculated fees embedded in our forecast. We believe we were overstating these fees and we will promptly revisit our long-term assumptions.

Cheniere Energy announced a positive investment decision for Midscale 8 and 9 at the Corpus Christi facility, but what is important for unitholders is the change in development strategy. Instead of large, multitrain expansions, Cheniere will be investing incrementally in single-train expansions.

Cheniere Energy Partners sits between North American natural gas producers and global liquefied natural gas consumers. It seeks to strike long-term purchase agreements with producers and consumers alike. These agreements allow the firm to lock in a consistent spread between the cost of gas and the fees it charges customers. Of the volumes Cheniere produces, 90% are linked to these arrangements. The agreements, in part pioneered by Cheniere, last two decades. Their long duration and strength give investors high confidence in their cash generation.

Cheniere Energy Partners sits between North American natural gas producers and global liquefied natural gas consumers. It seeks to strike long-term purchase agreements with producers and consumers alike. These agreements allow the firm to lock in a consistent spread between the cost of gas and the fees it charges customers. Of the volumes Cheniere produces, 90% are linked to these arrangements. The agreements, in part pioneered by Cheniere, last two decades. Their long duration and strength give investors high confidence in their cash generation.

Wide-moat Cheniere Energy Partners posted adjusted EBITDA slightly below PitchBook consensus, $997 million versus $1.03 billion. Management reiterated its full-year guidance as the business is well positioned to remain steady through the current macro turmoil. As a result, we are leaving our $61 fair value estimate unchanged.

Wide-moat-rated Cheniere Energy Partners posted results in line with PitchBook expectations, with only minor variations. Distributions per unit in 2024 were $3.25 and have been guided up to a midpoint of $3.30 for 2025. Similar to its parent, Cheniere Energy, we are slightly increasing our fair value estimate for Cheniere Energy Partners to $61 from $60.

Cheniere Energy Partners sits between North American natural gas producers and global liquefied natural gas consumers. It seeks to strike long-term purchase agreements with producers and consumers alike. These agreements allow the firm to lock in a consistent spread between the cost of gas and the fees it charges customers. Of the volumes Cheniere produces, 90% are linked to these arrangements. The agreements, in part pioneered by Cheniere, last two decades. Their long duration and strength give investors high confidence in their cash generation.