Company Reports

Chinese baijiu sales have deteriorated since the second half of 2024, and the sector has lagged the broader market. An aging population and falling per capita drinking rates point to a shrinking pool of buyers, prompting us to reassess competitive strength across our coverage.

Kweichow Moutai posted a soft second quarter, with revenue and net profit down 5% and 7% year on year, respectively. This marks the company's second quarterly decline in the past 10 years, following the first contraction in the fourth quarter of 2025.

As China's most distinguished spirit brand, Kweichow Moutai has remarkable pricing power, premium product quality, a long history, and unparalleled brand strength. Its premium position is reflected in its 69% operating margin and 80% return on invested capital over the past five years between 2021 and 2025, despite China's macroeconomy and consumption headwinds. Moutai remains a leading brand in China's culinary and consumption culture, and we believe it will continue its premium position over the long term.

Kweichow Moutai raised the ex-factory price of its flagship 53-degree Feitian Moutai to CNY 1,369 from CNY 1,269 per 500-milliliter bottle, or by 7.9%, and increased the retail price on its self-promoted iMoutai app to CNY 1,639 from CNY 1,539, or by 6.5%, effective July 18, 2026.

After a softer fourth quarter in 2025, Kweichow Moutai regained growth momentum in the first quarter of 2026, posting year-on-year revenue growth of 6.3% and a 1.5% increase in net profit.

As China's most distinguished spirit brand, Kweichow Moutai has remarkable pricing power, premium product quality, a long history, and unparalleled brand strength. Its premium position is reflected in its 69% operating margin and 80% return on invested capital over the past five years between 2021 and 2025, despite China's macroeconomy and consumption headwinds. Moutai remains a leading brand in China's culinary and consumption culture, and we believe it will continue its premium position over the long term.

Kweichow Moutai posted its first earnings decline since listing in 2001, with revenue and net profit down 1.2% and 4.5% year on year, respectively, in 2025. Despite this, the firm raised its full-year dividend per share by 0.9% to CNY 51.95, representing a 79% payout ratio.

Kweichow Moutai raised the ex-factory price of its flagship 53-degree Feitian Moutai to CNY 1,269 from CNY 1,169 per 500-milliliter bottle and increased the retail price in its self-promoted channels to CNY 1,539 from CNY 1,499, effective March 31.

As China's most distinguished spirit brand, Kweichow Moutai has remarkable pricing power, premium product quality, a long history, and unparalleled brand strength. Its premium position is reflected in its 67% operating margin and 86% return on invested capital over 2020-24. The Chinese government’s sweeping anticorruption initiative since 2012 has squeezed short-term sales of premium spirits in 2014-15. However, Moutai recovered quickly with an average of 21% net profit growth over 2016-24. Moutai remains a leading brand in China's culinary and consumption culture, and we believe it will continue its premium position over the long term.

Despite continued sectorwide demand weakness, our recent channel checks indicate steady sales volume for leading baijiu brands during the Lunar New Year period, with lower inventory levels compared with a year ago.

As China's most distinguished spirit brand, Kweichow Moutai has remarkable pricing power, premium product quality, a long history, and unparalleled brand strength. Its premium position is reflected in its 67% operating margin and 86% return on invested capital over the past five years between 2020 and 2024. The Chinese government’s sweeping anticorruption initiative since 2012 has squeezed short-term sales of premium spirits in 2014-15. However, Moutai has recovered quickly from 2016 with an average of 21% net profit growth through 2016-24. Moutai remains a leading brand in China's culinary and consumption culture, and we believe it will continue its premium position over the long term.

Our channel checks continue to indicate persistent weakness in baijiu demand, with the sector facing double-digit revenue declines ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. However, performance varies across segments—premium baijiu, led by Moutai, is showing signs of modest demand improvement.

As China's most distinguished spirit brand, Kweichow Moutai has remarkable pricing power, premium product quality, a long history, and unparalleled brand strength. Its premium position is reflected in its 67% operating margin and 86% return on invested capital over the past five years between 2020 and 2024. The Chinese government’s sweeping anticorruption initiative since 2012 has squeezed short-term sales of premium spirits in 2014-15. However, Moutai has recovered quickly from 2016 with an average of 21% net profit growth through 2016-24. Moutai remains a leading brand in China's culinary and consumption culture, and we believe it will continue its premium position over the long term.

Kweichow Moutai's third-quarter revenue and net profit rose just 0.4% and 0.5% year on year, marking the slowest growth since 2016. This brings cumulative nine-month sales growth to 6.5%, trailing the firm's full-year target of 9%.

Our channel checks continue to indicate persistent weakness in China's consumer sentiment and elevated inventory levels for Baijiu. Golden Week sales for the sector declined by 20%-30% year on year, and inventory levels have increased by about one month.

Kweichow Moutai posted 9% year-on-year growth in both revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, in line with its full-year sales growth target of 9%. However, second-quarter performance slowed, with revenue and net profit rising by 7% and 5%, respectively.

As China's most distinguished spirit brand, Kweichow Moutai has remarkable pricing power, premium product quality, a long history, and unparalleled brand strength. Its premium position is reflected in its 67% operating margin and 86% return on invested capital over the past five years between 2020 and 2024. The Chinese government’s sweeping anticorruption initiative since 2012 has squeezed short-term sales of premium spirits in 2014-15. However, Moutai has recovered quickly from 2016 with an average of 21% net profit growth through 2016-24. Moutai remains a leading brand in China's culinary and consumption culture, and we believe it will continue its premium position over the long term.

Kweichow Moutai's first-quarter 10.7% year-over-year revenue growth is slightly ahead of its annual 9% sales growth target for 2025. Net profit rose by 11.6%.

As China's most distinguished spirit brand, Kweichow Moutai has remarkable pricing power, premium product quality, a long history, and unparalleled brand strength. Its premium position is reflected in its 67% operating margin and 86% return on invested capital over the past five years between 2020 and 2024. The Chinese government’s sweeping anticorruption initiative since 2012 has squeezed short-term sales of premium spirits in 2014-15. However, Moutai has recovered quickly from 2016 with an average of 21% net profit growth through 2016-24. Moutai remains a leading brand in China's culinary and consumption culture, and we believe it will continue its premium position over the long term.

Kweichow Moutai posted 16% revenue growth and a 15% net profit rise in 2024, with a full-year dividend of CNY 51.50 per share, aligning with its 15% sales growth target and 75% payout ratio commitment. The firm aims for 9% sales growth in 2025.