Company Reports

YTO's parcel volume grew 9.5% year on year in the first half of 2026, outpacing the industry's 5%. Market volume share rose to 16.2%, from 15.5% the previous year. Unit gross profit for express delivery parcels rose 57.1% year on year, reaching CNY 0.27, from CNY 0.17 previously.

The six largest privately owned express delivery companies accounted for around 80% of China’s parcel delivery volume in the third quarter of 2025, based on data from the companies and China’s State Post Bureau. With concentration already high, we think further market share gains from smaller players are limited for these major operators.

YTO Express expects core net profit for the first half of 2026 to increase 72.2% to 89.2% year on year. Shares surged 10% and hit the daily trading limit following the announcement. YTO's volume share has increased steadily over the past nine months.

YTO Express' first-quarter recurring net profit surged 66% year on year, driven by 10% revenue growth following a government-led industrywide price increase. Parcel volume share ticked up to 16.0% from 15.9% in the fourth quarter. Management guided to positive free cash flow starting in 2026.

The six largest privately owned express delivery companies accounted for around 80% of China’s parcel delivery volume in the third quarter of 2025, based on data from the companies and China’s State Post Bureau. With concentration already high, we think further market share gains from smaller players are limited for these major operators.

Among the A‑share express operators that have released fourth‑quarter data, year‑on‑year revenue growth ranged from 0% to 24%. Average selling price improvement was partially offset by a slowdown in industry parcel volume growth to 5.0% year on year, from 13.3% in the prior quarter.

The six largest privately owned express delivery companies accounted for around 80% of China’s parcel-delivery volume in the third quarter of 2025, based on data from the companies and China’s State Post Bureau. With concentration already high, we think further market share gains from smaller players are limited for these major operators.

The six largest privately owned express delivery companies accounted for around 80% of China’s parcel-delivery volume in the third quarter of 2025, based on data from the companies and China’s State Post Bureau. With concentration already high, we think further market share gains from smaller players are limited for these major operators.

Third-quarter recurring EBIT for YTO and Yunda rose 33% and declined 31% year on year, respectively. The divergence was due to a 99-basis-point gross margin expansion for YTO and a 186-basis-point contraction for Yunda, alongside parcel volume growth of 15% and 7%, respectively.

The six largest privately owned express delivery companies accounted for around 82% of China’s parcel deliveries by volume in the third quarter of 2024, based on data from the companies and China’s State Post Bureau. With share already high, we think further volume share gain from smaller players is limited for these large companies.

YTO Express and STO Express saw core EBIT fall 13% and 10% year over year in the second quarter, respectively, despite parcel volume growth of 22% and 16%. Several couriers raised prices in China's main production provinces of Guangdong and Zhejiang.

The six largest privately owned express delivery companies accounted for around 82% of China’s parcel deliveries by volume in the third quarter of 2024, based on data from the companies and China’s State Post Bureau. With share already high, we think further volume share gain from smaller players is limited for these large companies.

The six largest privately owned express delivery companies accounted for around 82% of China’s parcel deliveries by volume in the third quarter of 2024, based on data from the companies and China’s State Post Bureau. With share already high, we think further volume share gain from smaller players is limited for these large companies.

YTO Express registered core EBIT growth of 11% in 2024 despite a 72-basis-point decline in gross margin. First-quarter core EBIT was down by 16% year on year as gross margin declined by 204 basis points.

In January 2025, parcel volume grew by 12% year on year at STO Express, 5% at YTO Express, and 3% at Yunda Holding. Meanwhile, express revenue rose by 5% at STO and 2% at YTO, but dropped 8% at Yunda.

The six largest privately owned express delivery companies accounted for around 82% of China’s parcel deliveries by volume in the third quarter of 2024, based on data from the companies and China’s State Post Bureau. With share already high, we think further volume share gain from smaller players is limited for these large companies.

The network partner model-based companies in China have gained parcel volume share from direct operation-based companies, with share rising to 78% in 2023 from 76% in 2022. The six largest express delivery companies controlled around 87% of China’s parcel deliveries by volume in 2023, based on data from the companies and China’s State Post Bureau. With share already high, we think further volume share gain is limited for the network partner model-based companies.

We cut our fair value estimate for no-moat YTO Express by 13% to CNY 15.95 per share due to weaker-than-expected cost savings in the first three quarters. YTO’s shares are fairly valued in our view.

The network partner model-based companies in China have gained parcel volume share from direct operation-based companies, with share rising to 78% in 2023 from 76% in 2022. The six largest express delivery companies controlled around 87% of China’s parcel deliveries by volume in 2023, based on data from the companies and China’s State Post Bureau. With share already high, we think further volume share gain is limited for the network partner model-based companies.

After reviewing our earnings assumptions, we raised YTO Express' fair value estimate by 21% to CNY 18.10 per share and increased our recurring net profit forecasts for 2024-26 by 8%-12%. Despite the higher valuation, we think shares are fairly valued due to our concerns over intense near-term price competition for express delivery.