Company Reports

Shell CEO Wael Sawan continues to send the right message: returns will take priority over growth as he seeks to close the valuation gap with US peers. While it might not be enough, we believe the key actions accompanying the message, including reduced spending and increased distributions, are positive and crucial steps.

Shell's second-quarter adjusted earnings of $9.8 billion exceeded expectations, driven by higher commodity prices, wide refining margins, and strong trading performance, which were offset by lost volumes due to Middle East disruptions. Share buybacks were unchanged at $3.0 billion for the quarter.

Shell's first-quarter adjusted earnings of $6.9 billion exceeded expectations, driven by strong trading performance across the marketing, refining, and chemicals segments. Share buybacks were reduced to $3.0 billion for the quarter, but the dividend increased by 5%.

The launch of the Iran war has sent global oil and gas prices and refining margins higher. Incorporating the latest futures curves resulted in a revision to our fair value estimates for the major oil companies.

Shell CEO Wael Sawan continues to send the right message—that returns will take priority over growth—as he seeks to close the valuation gap with US peers. While it might not be enough, we believe the key actions accompanying the message, including reduced spending and increased distributions, are positive and crucial steps.

Shell's fourth-quarter earnings fell short of market expectations due to the integrated gas and marketing segments. Shell returned 52% of its operating cash flow to shareholders in 2025. It maintained its $3.5 billion share repurchase program for the first quarter and increased the dividend 4%.

In the wake of the capture and arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, Trump administration officials signaled that US companies would be involved in the restoration of Venezuelan crude production.

Shell's third-quarter earnings exceeded market expectations, lifted in part by stronger trading results. Strong cash flow, combined with asset sale proceeds, led to lower debt levels than in the first quarter. Management maintained the $3.5 billion quarterly repurchase rate.

We've updated our midcycle oil price assumption. Our 10-year forecast marries our bullish in-house oil demand view with Rystad's supply projections, which align with our revised, long-term take.

Shell CEO Wael Sawan continues to send the right message—that returns will take priority over growth—as he seeks to close the valuation gap with US peers. While it might not be enough, we believe the key actions accompanying the message, including reduced spending and increased distributions, are positive and crucial steps.

Shell CEO Wael Sawan continues to send the right message—that returns will take priority over growth—as he seeks to close the valuation gap with US peers. While it might not be enough, we believe the key actions accompanying the message, including reduced spending and increased distributions, are positive and crucial steps.

Shell reported second-quarter earnings that exceeded market expectations. Although earnings fell from first-quarter levels, cash flow increased, limiting the rise in gearing. Management maintained the $3.5 billion quarterly repurchase rate.

Shell announced that it is not actively considering making an offer for BP, has not approached BP, and that no talks have taken place.

Crude oil prices were only up about 1% in early trading on June 23 after the US bombed Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend. Before this rise, oil prices had increased nearly 21% in the last month compared with oil equities, as measured by the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund's 9% gain.

Shell CEO Wael Sawan continues to send the right message—that returns will take priority over growth—as he seeks to close the valuation gap with US peers. While it might not be enough, we believe the key actions accompanying the message, including reduced spending and increased distributions, are positive and crucial steps.

Shell's first-quarter earnings exceeded market expectations, mainly due to performance from its upstream segment. Despite increased gearing and an uncertain oil price outlook, it maintained its quarterly repurchase rate of $3.5 billion.

Shell held its first investor update since 2023, when it first announced a renewed focus on returns. With its latest update, it maintained this focus, announcing additional cost reductions, reduced capital spending guidance, and increased shareholder return targets.

Shell's fourth-quarter 2024 earnings fell short of market expectations, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil and products trading results. Even as gearing increased, it maintained its quarterly repurchase rate of $3.5 billion. Guidance for the 2025 cash capex range is below 2024's range.

Shell's third-quarter earnings exceeded market expectations with strong performance across all segments. It maintained its quarterly repurchase rate of $3.5 billion as gearing fell on strong cash flow generation and guided to 2024 cash capex below the lower end of its prior guidance range.

New Shell CEO Wael Sawan is sending the right message—that returns will take priority over growth—as he seeks to close the valuation gap with US peers. While it might not be enough, we believe the key actions accompanying the message, including reduced spending and increased distributions, are positive and crucial steps. Also, while the long-term outlook remains uncertain, with most guidance items only covering through 2025, we anticipate that the focus on returns will remain intact beyond then.