Company Reports

All three credit bureaus—Equifax, Experian, TransUnion—and Fair Isaac have exposure to mortgage volumes, and in recent years, these volumes have proved difficult to forecast. Equifax's 2023 mortgage inquiries were 60% below 2020 levels and 41% below 2019 levels. But it is not just mortgage volumes that are affecting these firms. Regulatory changes at government agencies and outsize pricing increases can be important profit drivers. We see the transition to an optional bi-merge—a credit report with data from just two bureaus rather than all three—for government-conforming mortgages posing the most risk to Fair Isaac, as it does not have the upside that the credit bureaus get from the inclusion of VantageScore, a credit score developed jointly by the three major bureaus. But Fair Isaac also has the greatest upside to differing mortgage scenarios, as it has the highest incremental margins and the most pricing upside.

Experian’s fiscal third-quarter trading update highlights the firm’s resilience in the current macroeconomic environment. Organic revenue grew 6% in the quarter, which compares with 5% in both the first and second fiscal quarters. With one quarter left, Experian tweaked its fiscal 2024 organic revenue outlook to a range of 5%-6% from a range of 4%-6%. Overall, there was little in the firm’s trading update that would alter our long-term view of Experian, and we will maintain our wide moat rating and fair value estimate of GBX 3,300. We regard the firm’s shares as fairly valued and believe peer TransUnion offers more upside from a risk/reward perspective.

Along with Equifax and TransUnion, Experian is one of the big three credit bureaus. Experian's U.S. core credit bureau business is relatively mature, and as a result, the company has been expanding through adjacent products and in emerging markets.

Experian was steady in its second quarter of fiscal 2024. Experian saw 5% organic growth in its fiscal quarter and still expects 4%-6% organic growth and modest margin improvement for the full year. We believe the market is reacting positively to the maintained guidance considering recent revenue headwinds at peer TransUnion. Overall, we will maintain our wide moat rating and fair value estimate of GBX 3,300 on Experian. While we see upside to Experian, we believe Experian’s peer TransUnion offers more upside from a valuation perspective.

Wide-moat Experian reported 5% organic revenue growth in the firm’s fiscal first quarter, a downtick from 8% in the prior quarter as lending tightens. Overall, there was little in the firm’s trading update that would alter our long-term view of the firm and we will maintain our fair value estimate of GBX 3,300. We regard shares as modestly undervalued and continue to believe that Experian’s peers TransUnion and Equifax offer a more compelling opportunity to investors.

Along with Equifax and TransUnion, Experian is one of the big three credit bureaus. Experian's U.S. core credit bureau business is relatively mature, and as a result, the company has been expanding through adjacent products and in emerging markets.

Wide-moat Experian reported 7% organic constant currency revenue growth in its fiscal fourth quarter, a slight uptick from the 6% seen in the prior quarter and a solid result, in our view. Amid a weakening macroeconomic backdrop and tighter lending, Experian expects fiscal 2024 organic revenue growth of 4%-6%, which we believe showcases the firm's limited cyclical exposure. Overall, there was little in the firm’s earnings release that would alter our long-term view, and we will maintain our fair value estimate of GBX 3,500.

Along with Equifax and TransUnion, Experian is one of the big three credit bureaus. Experian's U.S. core credit bureau business is relatively mature, and as a result, the company has been expanding through adjacent products and in emerging markets.

Wide-moat Experian reported 6% organic constant currency revenue growth in its fiscal third quarter trading update, a dip from 8% in the prior quarter but a healthy result in our view. Macroeconomic pressures are coming into focus, but thus far, Experian has only seen limited impact and we view Experian’s business as having only modest cyclicality. Overall, there was little in the firm’s earnings release that would alter our long-term view of the firm and we will maintain our fair value estimate of GBX 3,800.

Wide-moat Experian reported 8% organic constant currency revenue in the firm’s fiscal second quarter, consistent with the level seen in the prior quarter. Experian maintained its fiscal 2023 guidance, which we view as a positive as the macroenvironment has seen challenges since the company last reported. Overall, there was little in the firm’s earnings release that would alter our long-term view of the firm and we will maintain our fair value estimate of GBX 3,800. We regard shares as undervalued.

Along with Equifax and TransUnion, Experian is one of the big three credit bureaus. Experian's U.S. core credit bureau business is relatively mature, and as a result, the company has been expanding through adjacent products and in emerging markets.

Along with Equifax and TransUnion, Experian is one of the big three credit bureaus. Experian's U.S. core credit bureau business is relatively mature, and as a result, the company has been expanding through adjacent products and in emerging markets.

Even as the economic mood is generally souring, wide-moat Experian reported a strong start to its fiscal year and is mostly seeing healthy credit trends in consumer lending. The company reported 8% organic constant-currency revenue growth in the first quarter, in line with its full-year guidance of 7%-9% growth, which it reaffirmed. We will maintain our fair value estimate of GBX 3,500 and view the shares as undervalued.

Along with Equifax and TransUnion, Experian is one of the big three credit bureaus. Experian's U.S. core credit bureau business is relatively mature, and as a result, the company has been expanding through adjacent products and in emerging markets.

Experian reported a decent end to its fiscal year with 9% organic revenue growth in the fourth quarter, roughly consistent with the FactSet consensus. Experian’s fiscal 2023 outlook for 7%-9% organic revenue growth is solid, in our view, and in line with our estimates but a bit shy of consensus expectations. Overall, there was little that would alter our long-term view of the firm, and we will maintain our wide moat rating and GBX 3,230 fair value estimate.

Along with Equifax and TransUnion, Experian is one the big three credit bureaus. Experian's U.S. core credit bureau business is relatively mature, and as a result, the company has been expanding through adjacent products and in emerging markets.

Wide-moat rated Experian reported solid financial results for its third fiscal quarter ending Dec. 31 with revenue growing 15% and organic revenue growing 11%. The revenue growth was broad-based and Experian expects organic revenue growth of 12%-13%, up from a range of 11%-13% for fiscal 2022, which ends March 31. Overall, there was little in its trading update that would alter our long-term view of the firm, and as a result we don’t expect a large change to our GBX 3,100 fair value estimate on Experian’s shares.

Experian reported a strong fiscal 2022 first half with 16% organic revenue growth. The growth was broad-based geographically, with all regions showing growth as economies around the globe continue to improve versus 2020. Overall, there was little in the earnings release that would alter our long-term view of the firm, and we will maintain our wide moat rating and GBX 3,100/$43.50 fair value estimate.

Along with Equifax and TransUnion, Experian is one the big three credit bureaus. Experian's U.S. core credit bureau business is relatively mature, and as a result, the company has been expanding through adjacent products and in emerging markets.

During the first quarter of fiscal-year 2022, Experian saw total revenue increase 31%. A weaker U.S. dollar boosted growth by 3 percentage points. On an organic constant currency basis, revenue increased 22%. As a result of the strong performance, Experian increased its full-year revenue outlook. We are maintaining our wide moat rating and expect to increase our fair value estimate by a mid- to high-single-digit percent.