Company Reports

With Fair Isaac's Direct License Program delayed and a wider range of outcomes for mortgage bureau and score usage, we lower our fair value estimate on Fair Isaac.

On Sept. 3, 2026, Federal Housing Finance Agency Director William Pulte sent a series of x.com posts criticizing the pricing of Fair Isaac and the credit bureaus. He also suggested eliminating the tri-merge requirement for conforming mortgages and encouraged more lenders to adopt VantageScore.

In its fiscal first-quarter trading update, Experian reported 7% organic revenue growth, consistent with its full-year 6%-8% outlook. As is often the case, the company left its outlook unchanged after the first quarter.

After reviewing Experian’s moat rating, we are downgrading our Morningstar economic moat rating to narrow from wide.

Along with Equifax and TransUnion, Experian is one of the Big Three credit bureaus. Experian's US core credit bureau business is relatively mature and, as a result, the company has been expanding through adjacent products and in emerging markets.

Experian reported 9% organic revenue in its fiscal fourth quarter. As is customary, Experian gave its fiscal 2027 outlook which calls for organic revenue growth of 6%-8% and 50 basis points of margin expansion.

Along with Equifax and TransUnion, Experian is one of the Big Three credit bureaus. Experian's US core credit bureau business is relatively mature and, as a result, the company has been expanding through adjacent products and in emerging markets.

As of midday April 10, Fair Isaac shares were down as much as 14% in intraday trading. Shares of credit bureaus TransUnion and Equifax were down as much as 5% and 4%, respectively.

Fair Isaac shares fell 21% between March 9 and March 11, underperforming peers TransUnion (down 7%) and Equifax (down 8%) as well as the Morningstar US Market Index (up 1%) over the same period.

Along with Equifax and TransUnion, Experian is one of the Big Three credit bureaus. Experian's US core credit bureau business is relatively mature and, as a result, the company has been expanding through adjacent products and in emerging markets.

In intraday trading on Feb. 3, a broad group of information-services companies, such as rating agencies, data providers, index providers, credit bureaus, and others, are seeing share price declines of 5% or more.

Experian reported organic revenue growth of 8% during its fiscal third-quarter update, consistent with the 9% and 8% growth seen in the second and first quarters, respectively. Experian also maintained its fiscal 2026 outlook. Shares of Experian finished the London session down 5%.

Along with Equifax and TransUnion, Experian is one of the Big Three credit bureaus. Experian's US core credit bureau business is relatively mature and, as a result, the company has been expanding through adjacent products and in emerging markets.

On the evening of Jan. 5, 2026, Bill Pulte, who serves as the director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, or FHFA, wrote on x.com that “I do not understand what the credit bureaus are doing with their pricing—they are inviting a lot of scrutiny that is only intensifying by the day.”

Experian reported a strong first half of fiscal 2026, with 8% organic growth. In addition, the firm provided commentary on its VantageScore strategy. Despite the firm now guiding to 8% organic growth in fiscal 2026 (compared with a previously stated 6%-8% range), shares declined by 4%.

On Oct. 7, 2025, Equifax announced it would price VantageScore at $4.50 per mortgage score for two years and offer free VantageScore to Fair Isaac customers across financial services through 2026. The move is in response to Fair Isaac announcing a direct license model at $10 per score on Oct. 1.

On Oct. 1, 2025, Fair Isaac announced that it would change its pricing and distribution model for its mortgage scores. Fair Isaac will allow tri-merge resellers the option to directly calculate scores rather than via the credit bureaus.

Along with Equifax and TransUnion, Experian is one of the Big Three credit bureaus. Experian's US core credit bureau business is relatively mature and, as a result, the company has been expanding through adjacent products and in emerging markets.

In its trading update, Experian reported 8% organic revenue growth for its first fiscal quarter. The company maintained its outlook of 6%-8% organic revenue growth for the full year.

On July 8, 2025, Bill Pulte, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, or FHFA, in a post on the social platform X indicated that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can use VantageScore 4.0 while maintaining the tri-merge requirement.