Company Reports

SkyCity's underlying fiscal 2026 EBITDA of NZD 182 million was down 22% on last year. Revenue per visit is lower and regulatory costs are higher. Weak economic conditions in New Zealand, particularly toward the end of the year, in addition to mandatory carded play, weighed on profitability.

We expect SkyCity to return to earnings growth over the next decade, buoyed by the recovery from cyclical lows and solid performance from its core assets in Auckland and Adelaide. SkyCity is the monopoly operator in both jurisdictions, with long-dated licences (exclusive licence for Auckland expires in 2048, and Adelaide licence expires in 2085 with exclusivity guaranteed until 2035). We expect Auckland in particular to perform strongly, thanks to SkyCity's solid record of reinvestment, resulting in high property quality, stable visitor growth, and earnings resilience.

We expect SkyCity to deliver strong earnings growth over the next decade, buoyed by the recovery from cyclical lows and solid performance from its core assets in Auckland and Adelaide. SkyCity is the monopoly operator in both jurisdictions, with long-dated licences (exclusive licence for Auckland expires in 2048, and Adelaide licence expires in 2085 with exclusivity guaranteed until 2035). We expect Auckland in particular to perform strongly, thanks to SkyCity's solid record of reinvestment, resulting in high property quality, stable visitor growth, and earnings resilience.

SkyCity expects underlying fiscal 2026 EBITDA of NZD 180 million-NZD 190 million, a downgrade to prior guidance of about 8% at the midpoint. Higher fuel prices since March 2026 have weighed on trading and visitations, particularly in Auckland and Adelaide.

SkyCity reported underlying EBITDA of NZD 86 million, 28% lower than a year ago. An uplift in anti-money laundering compliance and gambler harm minimization, like mandatory carded play rolled out in New Zealand in July 2025, is weighing on profitability despite property visitations holding up.

We expect SkyCity to deliver strong earnings growth over the next decade, buoyed by the recovery from cyclical lows and solid performance from its core assets in Auckland and Adelaide. SkyCity is the monopoly operator in both jurisdictions, with long-dated licences (exclusive licence for Auckland expires in 2048, and Adelaide licence expires in 2085 with exclusivity guaranteed until 2035). We expect Auckland in particular to perform strongly, thanks to SkyCity's solid record of reinvestment, resulting in high property quality, stable visitor growth, and earnings resilience.

An uplift in anti-money laundering compliance and gambler harm minimization is placing pressure on earnings at SkyCity.

We expect SkyCity to deliver strong earnings growth over the next decade, buoyed by the recovery from cyclical lows and solid performance from its core assets in Auckland and Adelaide. SkyCity's Auckland and Adelaide properties. SkyCity is the monopoly operator in both jurisdictions, with long-dated licences (exclusive licence for Auckland expires in 2048, and Adelaide licence expires in 2085 with exclusivity guaranteed until 2035). We expect these properties to perform strongly, thanks to SkyCity's solid record of reinvestment, resulting in high property quality, stable visitor growth, and earnings resilience.

We expect SkyCity to deliver strong earnings growth over the next decade, buoyed by the recovery from cyclical lows and solid performance from its core assets in Auckland and Adelaide. SkyCity's Auckland and Adelaide properties underpin the firm's narrow economic moat. SkyCity is the monopoly operator in both jurisdictions, with long-dated licences (exclusive licence for Auckland expires in 2048, and Adelaide licence expires in 2085 with exclusivity guaranteed until 2035). These properties have performed strongly, thanks to SkyCity's solid record of reinvestment, resulting in high property quality, stable visitor growth, and earnings resilience.

SkyCity's fiscal 2025 underlying EBITDA was NZD 234 million, 16% lower than last year. While visitations are up, spending per visit is significantly down. The company also announced a dilutive NZD 240 million equity raise at NZD 0.70 per share.

SkyCity intends to sue Fletcher Building for about NZD 330 million in damages from the delay in constructing the New Zealand International Convention Centre. Originally it was due for delivery in early 2019, but following a fire and covid-19, handover is expected in February 2026.

We expect SkyCity to deliver strong earnings growth over the next decade, buoyed by the recovery from cyclical lows and solid performance from its core assets in Auckland and Adelaide. SkyCity's Auckland and Adelaide properties underpin the firm's narrow economic moat. SkyCity is the monopoly operator in both jurisdictions, with long-dated licences (exclusive licence for Auckland expires in 2048, and Adelaide licence expires in 2085 with exclusivity guaranteed until 2035). These properties have performed strongly, thanks to SkyCity's solid record of reinvestment, resulting in high property quality, stable visitor growth, and earnings resilience.

At a trading update, SkyCity noted weakening trading conditions. While visitor numbers are holding up, spending per visit has declined. The company now expects fiscal 2025 EBITDA to be 4% below the bottom of its prior guidance range of NZD 225 million-NZD 245 million.

We expect SkyCity to deliver strong earnings growth over the next decade, buoyed by the recovery from cyclical lows and solid performance from its core assets in Auckland and Adelaide. SkyCity's Auckland and Adelaide properties underpin the firm's narrow economic moat. SkyCity is the monopoly operator in both jurisdictions, with long-dated licences (exclusive licence for Auckland expires in 2048, and Adelaide licence expires in 2085 with exclusivity guaranteed until 2035). These properties have performed strongly, thanks to SkyCity's solid record of reinvestment, resulting in high property quality, stable visitor growth, and earnings resilience.

SkyCity reported interim 2025 EBITDA of NZD 113 million, 22% lower than last year. Challenging economic conditions in New Zealand weighed on revenue, and risk and compliance uplift is weighing on costs. The company revised full-year EBITDA guidance to NZD 225 million-NZD 245 million.

Casino earnings are subdued in Australia and New Zealand. Consumers are cutting back on gambling spending amid cost-of-living pressures. Regulatory headwinds are also mounting, with much greater scrutiny on compliance and controls at casino operators like SkyCity and Star Entertainment.

We expect SkyCity to deliver strong earnings growth over the next decade, buoyed by the recovery from cyclical lows and solid performance from its core assets in Auckland and Adelaide. SkyCity's Auckland and Adelaide properties underpin the firm's narrow economic moat. SkyCity is the monopoly operator in both jurisdictions, with long-dated licences (exclusive licence for Auckland expires in 2048, and Adelaide licence expires in 2085 with exclusivity guaranteed until 2035). These properties have performed strongly, thanks to SkyCity's solid record of reinvestment, resulting in high property quality, stable visitor growth, and earnings resilience.

Fiscal 2024 was a rough year for SkyCity. Underlying EBITDA fell 8% to NZD 278 million—about 2% below our forecast. The weaker discretionary spending environment is seeing a reduction in spending by the mass market, particularly in gaming machine play. Risk and compliance costs are also mounting, now NZD 22 million for the year—about a tenfold increase on fiscal 2020, about half of which will be ongoing. We lower our fair value estimate by 3% to NZD 3.00 (AUD 2.70) per share due principally to a likely higher hit to revenue from mandatory carded play (particularly in Adelaide) and a slightly higher effective tax rate in New Zealand. Due to a change in New Zealand legislation, commercial buildings with an estimated life span of over 50 years can no longer be depreciated—effectively raising SkyCity’s taxable income moving forward.

Conditions have deteriorated at SkyCity. The company lowered full-year EBITDA guidance to NZD 280 million-NZD 285 million from NZD 290 million-NZD 310 million. We lower our fiscal 2024 EBITDA forecast by about 2% to NZD 283 million. The weaker discretionary environment is weighing on the mass market in New Zealand (in particular) and in Adelaide; the international high roller business has been dissolved; and labor costs have taken a step up, particularly in compliance and regulatory spending. Additional taxes at SkyCity Adelaide and delays in opening the Horizon Hotel are also set to weigh on earnings in the medium term.

We expect SkyCity to deliver strong earnings growth over the next decade, buoyed by the recovery from cyclical lows and solid performance from its core assets in Auckland and Adelaide. SkyCity's Auckland and Adelaide properties underpin the firm's narrow economic moat. SkyCity is the monopoly operator in both jurisdictions, with long-dated licences (exclusive licence for Auckland expires in 2048, and Adelaide licence expires in 2085 with exclusivity guaranteed until 2035). These properties have performed strongly, thanks to SkyCity's solid record of reinvestment, resulting in high property quality, stable visitor growth, and earnings resilience.