Company Reports

New Hope's fiscal 2026 adjusted NPAT of AUD 162 million, or AUD 0.19 per share, fell 60% on last year, driven by a 10% decline in realized coal prices and higher unit costs that offset higher volumes. Despite this, shares rose 3% as the market cheered a higher-than-expected AUD 0.30 final dividend.

New Hope offers exposure to global energy demand via increasing thermal coal production at a time when many other miners are winding down or selling their thermal coal assets. The strategy relies on demand for high-quality thermal coal remaining robust longer-term. The purchase of a further 40% interest in the Bengalla coal mine in New South Wales in 2018 took its ownership of Bengalla to 80% after the company purchased its initial 40% stake in 2016. Along with the development of New Acland Stage 3, this sees New Hope reliant on thermal coal. We forecast equity sales of thermal coal to rise to about 13 million metric tons from fiscal 2029, up from roughly 11.8 million in fiscal 2026, driven by the ramp up of New Acland Stage 3.

We have revised our midcycle coal prices. Inflation has recently pushed up and steepened cost curves. Higher royalties in Queensland—the world’s largest metallurgical coal exporter—also support prices and disincentivize investing in new supply.

New Hope offers exposure to global energy demand via increasing thermal coal production at a time when many other miners are winding down or selling their thermal coal assets. The strategy relies on demand for high-quality thermal coal remaining robust longer-term. The purchase of a further 40% interest in the Bengalla coal mine in New South Wales in 2018 took its ownership of Bengalla to 80% after the company purchased its initial 40% stake in 2016. Along with the development of New Acland Stage 3, this sees New Hope reliant on thermal coal. We forecast equity sales of thermal coal to rise to about 13 million metric tons in fiscal 2030, up from roughly 10.5 million in fiscal 2025, driven by the ramp up of New Acland Stage 3.

New Hope's first-half adjusted EBITDA of AUD 215 million is down 58% on a year ago, with lower thermal coal prices the main driver. The interim dividend of AUD 10 cents per share is also down, by 47%. However, the Iran war is likely to drive higher earnings for it and our other coal mining coverage.

New Hope offers exposure to global energy demand via increasing thermal coal production at a time when many other miners are winding down or selling their thermal coal assets. The strategy relies on demand for high-quality thermal coal remaining robust longer-term. The purchase of a further 40% interest in the Bengalla coal mine in New South Wales in 2018 took its ownership of Bengalla to 80% after the company purchased its initial 40% stake in 2016. Along with the development of New Acland Stage 3, this sees New Hope reliant on thermal coal. We forecast equity sales of thermal coal to rise to about 13 million metric tons in fiscal 2030, up from roughly 10.5 million in fiscal 2025, driven by the ramp up of New Acland Stage 3.

Base metals prices have risen strongly since last quarter, with copper and aluminum driven by supply concerns and optimism over rising demand for use in decarbonization and electrification. Metallurgical coal and rare earths prices are also higher, but thermal coal and minerals sands are weaker.

New Hope offers exposure to global energy demand via increasing thermal coal production at a time when many other miners are winding down or selling their thermal coal assets. The strategy relies on demand for high-quality thermal coal remaining robust longer-term. The purchase of a further 40% interest in the Bengalla coal mine in New South Wales in 2018 took its ownership of Bengalla to 80% after the company purchased its initial 40% stake in 2016. Along with the development of New Acland Stage 3, this sees New Hope reliant on thermal coal. We forecast equity sales of thermal coal to rise to about 13 million metric tons in fiscal 2030, up from roughly 10.5 million in fiscal 2025, driven by the ramp up of New Acland Stage 3.

Thermal and metallurgical coal prices are in the doldrums due to slower economic growth and energy demand, and softer steelmaking in China, respectively. With the supply of both types of coal solid, higher-cost producers are starting to reduce or cease production, with some going out of business.

New Hope offers exposure to global energy demand via increasing thermal coal production at a time when many other miners are winding down or selling their thermal coal assets. The strategy relies on demand for high-quality thermal coal remaining robust longer-term. The purchase of a further 40% interest in the Bengalla coal mine in New South Wales in 2018 took its ownership of Bengalla to 80% after the company purchased its initial 40% stake in 2016. Along with the development of New Acland Stage 3, this sees New Hope reliant on thermal coal. We forecast equity sales of thermal coal to rise to about 13 million metric tons in fiscal 2030, up from roughly 10.5 million in fiscal 2025, driven by the ramp up of New Acland Stage 3.

New Hope's fiscal 2025 adjusted NPAT of AUD 410 million, or AUD 45 cps, fell 15% on last year on reduced coal prices, partly offset by higher volumes and lower unit cash costs. But the market liked the higher-than-expected fully franked final dividend of AUD 15 cps, with shares closing up 5%.

New Hope offers exposure to global energy demand via increasing thermal coal production at a time when many other miners are winding down or selling their thermal coal assets. The strategy relies on demand for high quality thermal coal remaining robust longer-term. The purchase of a further 40% interest in the Bengalla coal mine in New South Wales in 2018 took its ownership of Bengalla to 80% after the company purchased its initial 40% stake in 2016. Along with the development of New Acland Stage 3, this sees New Hope reliant on thermal coal. We forecast equity sales of thermal coal to rise to about 13 million metric tons in fiscal 2030, up from roughly 10.5 million in fiscal 2025, driven by the ramp up of New Acland Stage 3.

Shares of our iron ore, base metals, coal, and mineral sands miners have risen on last quarter after the shock of April 2, 2025 tariffs. With China driving demand for most commodities, investors appear to have concluded that tariffs wont materially weaken growth and commodity demand.

Demand from China has been the main driver of rising commodity prices in the past two decades. More recently, gold is close to historical highs on safe-haven demand. However, driven by weak China steel end-user demand and slower global growth, most other commodity prices have fallen.

Gold is higher in the March quarter as worries over tariffs affecting economic growth see a flight to safety. Despite likely slower global growth, copper is up as investors try to get ahead of potential tariffs on US copper imports. Iron ore is flat, while metallurgical and thermal coal are down.

Higher US tariffs could lead to slower economic growth and recession, reducing near-term commodity demand. Shares of our nongold mining coverage are materially lower on last quarter, led by base metals and coal miners.

New Hope offers exposure to global energy demand via increasing thermal coal production at a time when many other miners are winding down or selling their thermal coal assets. The strategy relies on demand for high quality thermal coal remaining robust longer-term. The purchase of a further 40% interest in the Bengalla coal mine in New South Wales in 2018 took its ownership of Bengalla to 80% after the company purchased its initial 40% stake in 2016. Along with the development of New Acland Stage 3, this sees New Hope reliant on thermal coal. We forecast equity sales of thermal coal to rise to about 13 million metric tons in fiscal 2029, up from roughly 8.7 million in fiscal 2024, driven by the ramp up of New Acland Stage 3.

New Hope's fiscal 2025 first-half EBITDA of AUD 520 million is up 22% on a year ago, with 44% higher equity coal sales volume of 5.4 million metric tons as the main driver. Along with unit cash costs falling 14%, this more than offset 15% lower average realized prices of AUD 180 per metric ton.

New Hope offers exposure to global energy demand via increasing thermal coal production at a time when many other miners are winding down or selling their thermal coal assets. The strategy relies on demand for high quality thermal coal remaining robust longer-term. The purchase of a further 40% interest in the Bengalla coal mine in New South Wales in 2018 took its ownership of Bengalla to 80% after the company purchased its initial 40% stake in 2016. Along with the development of New Acland Stage 3, this sees New Hope reliant on thermal coal. We forecast equity sales of thermal coal to rise to about 13 million metric tons in fiscal 2029, up from roughly 8.7 million in fiscal 2024, driven by the ramp up of New Acland Stage 3.

China’s increased efforts to support its economy and tottering residential property sector saw iron ore and most other commodity prices rise in the December quarter. Gold is also higher. However, prices are generally elevated versus the past and cost curve support.