Company Reports

GrainCorp now expects fiscal 2026 underlying EBITDA at the midpoint of its AUD 200 million-AUD 240 million guidance range. Separately, the Australian Department of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Forestry forecasts fiscal 2027 east coast winter grain production of about 27 metric tons.

GrainCorp enjoys significant market shares in grain storage, handling, and port elevation services along the eastern seaboard of Australia. Earnings are heavily affected by seasonal conditions, but diversification into oilseed crushing and refining reduces earnings volatility and provides growth opportunities. But we don't think the firm has carved an economic moat, and forecast returns on invested capital to trail the cost of capital over the long term.

GrainCorp enjoys significant market shares in grain storage, handling, and port elevation services along the eastern seaboard of Australia. Earnings are heavily affected by seasonal conditions, but diversification into oilseed crushing and refining reduces earnings volatility and provides growth opportunities. But we don't think the firm has carved an economic moat, and forecast returns on invested capital to trail the cost of capital over the long term.

GrainCorp's stock fell 15% after reporting interim fiscal 2026 underlying EBITDA of AUD 136 million, 32% lower than last year, driven mostly by lower grain handling. It reiterated the underlying full-year fiscal 2026 EBITDA guidance of between AUD 200 million and AUD 240 million.

GrainCorp enjoys significant market shares in grain storage, handling, and port elevation services along the eastern seaboard of Australia. Earnings are heavily affected by seasonal conditions, but diversification into oilseed crushing and refining reduces earnings volatility and provides growth opportunities. But we don't think the firm has carved an economic moat, and forecast returns on invested capital to trail the cost of capital over the long term.

GrainCorp expects fiscal 2026 underlying EBITDA of AUD 200 million-AUD 240 million and underlying profit of AUD 20 million-AUD 50 million—below last year. Despite a bumper East Coast crop, global grain oversupply led to lower prices and discouraged growers from selling. Shares fell 13% on the day.

GrainCorp expects total receival volumes in fiscal 2026 of 11 million to 12 million metric tons, down from about 13 million metric tons last year, due to a smaller harvest and low prevailing commodity prices. Also, it's selling its underperforming GrainsConnect Canada joint venture. Shares fell 15%.

GrainCorp enjoys significant market shares in grain storage, handling, and port elevation services along the eastern seaboard of Australia. Earnings are heavily affected by seasonal conditions, but diversification into oilseed crushing and refining reduces earnings volatility and provides growth opportunities. But we don't think the firm has carved an economic moat, and forecast returns on invested capital to trail the cost of capital over the long term.

GrainCorp enjoys significant market shares in grain storage, handling, and port elevation services along the eastern seaboard of Australia. Earnings are heavily affected by seasonal conditions, but diversification into oilseed crushing and refining reduces earnings volatility and provides growth opportunities. But we don't think the firm has carved an economic moat, and forecast returns on invested capital to trail the cost of capital over the long term.

GrainCorp's fiscal 2025 underlying EBITDA of AUD 308 million is 15% higher than last year. Earnings growth was driven mainly by a 33% increase in east coast Australian grain production, partially offset by lower oilseed crush margins. Though shares fell about 11% by the close of trade.

The September crop report from the Australian Department of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Forestry forecasts fiscal 2026 east coast winter grain production of about 30 million metric tons. This is about 6% lower than last year, but 29% above the 10-year average.

GrainCorp enjoys significant market shares in grain storage, handling, and port elevation services along the eastern seaboard of Australia. Earnings are heavily affected by seasonal conditions, but the diversification into oilseed crushing and refining reduces earnings volatility and provides growth opportunities. But we don't think the firm has carved an economic moat, and forecast returns on invested capital to trail the cost of capital over the long term.

GrainCorp reported interim fiscal 2025 underlying EBITDA of AUD 202 million, 23% higher than last year, driven mostly by a 16% increase in total grain handled. It increased underlying fiscal 2025 EBITDA guidance to between AUD 285 million and AUD 325 million.

GrainCorp enjoys significant market shares in grain storage, handling, and port elevation services along the eastern seaboard of Australia. Earnings are heavily affected by seasonal conditions, but the diversification into oilseed crushing and refining reduces earnings volatility and provides growth opportunities. But we don't think the firm has carved an economic moat, and forecast returns on invested capital to trail the cost of capital over the long term.

GrainCorp enjoys significant market shares in grain storage, handling, and port elevation services along the eastern seaboard of Australia. Earnings are heavily affected by seasonal conditions, but the diversification into oilseed crushing and refining reduces earnings volatility and provides growth opportunities. We don't think the firm has carved an economic moat, though, and forecast returns on invested capital to trail the cost of capital over the long term.

The Australian Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry forecasts 2025 East Coast winter grain production of 30 million metric tons, about 30% above 2024. GrainCorp released fiscal 2025 underlying EBITDA guidance of AUD 270 million-AUD 320 million.

GrainCorp enjoys significant market shares in grain storage, handling, and port elevation services along the eastern seaboard of Australia. Earnings are heavily affected by seasonal conditions, but the diversification into oilseed crushing and refining reduces earnings volatility and provides growth opportunities. We don't think the firm has carved an economic moat, though, and forecast returns on invested capital to trail the cost of capital over the long term.

Cropping conditions, both in production volumes and supply chain margins for GrainCorp, have significantly normalized. GrainCorp reported fiscal 2024 underlying EBITDA of AUD 268 million, less than half of the prior corresponding period.

The September revision of the crop report from the Australian Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry forecasts 2025 east coast winter grain production of about 29 million metric tons. This is a 25% increase from 2024 and significantly higher than the 10-year average of about 22 million metric tons. Conditions are favorable following high levels of soil moisture at the time of planting, good rainfall since, and the climate outlook from the Bureau of Meteorology pointing to likely above-average rainfall for most crop regions. We adjust our earnings forecasts accordingly and lift our fiscal 2025 EBITDA forecast by 11% to AUD 312 million. We lift our fair value estimate by 7% to AUD 7.90 per share, with about half of the increase due to the time value of money.

GrainCorp enjoys significant market shares in grain storage, handling, and port elevation services along the eastern seaboard of Australia. Earnings are heavily affected by seasonal conditions, but the diversification into oilseed crushing and refining reduces earnings volatility and provides growth opportunities. We don't believe the firm has carved an economic moat, though, and forecast returns on invested capital to trail the cost of capital over the long term.