Company Reports

Vertex reported second-quarter revenue of $3.3 billion, a 12% increase year over year. Trikafta continued to anchor the cystic fibrosis franchise, comprising 75% of sales, while next-generation Alyftrek rose to 17% of sales. Vertex raised its 2026 revenue outlook by 96 basis points at the midpoint.

Vertex announced it will acquire Crinetics Pharmaceuticals for $85 per share (representing a 102% premium on its last closing price before the deal was announced), which marks Vertex's largest deal ever with a total equity value of $10 billion. Vertex's stock was down about 1.5% on July 7.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals was known for discovering blockbuster hepatitis C drug Incivek, which is now overshadowed by the company's robust cystic fibrosis franchise. Vertex's approved cystic fibrosis drugs—Kalydeco, Orkambi, Symdeko, Trikafta, and Alyftrek—make the firm eligible to treat about 90% of the CF population. We expect Vertex to maintain its dominant position in CF, given the strong efficacy of its therapies, lengthy patents, and lack of competition, while developing pipeline candidates in other indications to spur growth.

Vertex posted nearly $3 billion in first-quarter revenue, up 8% year over year. Trikafta continued to anchor the cystic fibrosis franchise, comprising 79% of sales while next-generation Alyftrek accounted for 14%. Vertex reaffirmed its 2026 revenue outlook of just over $13 billion at the midpoint.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals was known for discovering blockbuster hepatitis C drug Incivek, which is now overshadowed by the company's robust cystic fibrosis franchise. Vertex's approved cystic fibrosis drugs—Kalydeco, Orkambi, Symdeko, Trikafta, and Alyftrek—make the firm eligible to treat about 90% of the CF population. We expect Vertex to maintain its dominant position in CF, given the strong efficacy of its therapies, lengthy patents, and lack of competition, while developing pipeline candidates in other indications to spur growth.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals reported positive phase 3 data for povetacicept in IgA nephropathy, a chronic kidney disease that can lead to renal failure, showing a 49.8% reduction in proteinuria compared with placebo and meeting all primary and secondary endpoints. Shares rose 8% on March 10.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals was known for discovering blockbuster hepatitis C drug Incivek, which is now overshadowed by the company's robust cystic fibrosis franchise. Vertex's approved cystic fibrosis drugs—Kalydeco, Orkambi, Symdeko, Trikafta, and Alyftrek—make the firm eligible to treat about 90% of the CF population. We expect Vertex to maintain its dominant position in CF, given the strong efficacy of its therapies, lengthy patents, and lack of competition, while developing pipeline candidates in other indications to spur growth.

Vertex's 2025 revenue was $12 billion, up 9% year over year. Cystic fibrosis drug Trikafta contributed 86% of total sales and next-generation CF therapy Alyftrek accounted for 7%. Management is guiding to just over $13 billion in 2026 revenue at the midpoint, implying 8.5% growth.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals was known for discovering blockbuster hepatitis C drug Incivek, which is now overshadowed by the company's robust cystic fibrosis franchise. Vertex's approved cystic fibrosis drugs—Kalydeco, Orkambi, Symdeko, Trikafta, and Alyftrek—make the firm eligible to treat about 90% of the CF population. We expect Vertex to maintain its dominant position in CF, given the strong efficacy of its therapies, lengthy patents, and lack of competition, while developing pipeline candidates in other indications to spur growth.

Vertex reported third-quarter revenue of $3.08 billion, an 11% increase compared with the prior-year period. Management slightly raised its 2025 revenue guidance by 21 basis points. Shares closed down 1% on Nov 4.

In the second quarter, Vertex reported a 12% revenue increase year over year and reiterated its 2025 financial guidance. Management announced its next-generation pain treatment, VX-993, would not advance after it failed to meet its primary endpoint, and shares declined 17% in early trading.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals was known for discovering blockbuster hepatitis C drug Incivek, which is now overshadowed by the company's robust cystic fibrosis franchise. Vertex's approved cystic fibrosis drugs—Kalydeco, Orkambi, Symdeko, Trikafta, and Alyftrek—make the firm eligible to treat about 90% of the CF population. We expect Vertex to maintain its dominant position in CF, given the strong efficacy of its therapies, lengthy patents, and lack of competition, while developing pipeline candidates in other indications to spur growth.

Narrow-moat Vertex Pharmaceuticals delivered softer-than-expected first-quarter results, as higher costs and weaker Trikafta revenue outside of the US weighed on the quarter's performance. While Trikafta sales in the US increased 9% to $1.66 billion thanks to strong patient demand and higher net realized pricing, Trikafta revenue outside of the US decreased 5% to $1.11 billion as strong international demand was offset by a revenue decline in Russia due to an unauthorized generic version on the market. Management believes this issue in Russia is a limited and isolated one, but it could potentially pose a risk to Trikafta sales. In addition, Vertex implemented a pause on its multiple ascending dose portion of the phase 1/2 study of VX-522, a nebulized CFTR mRNA therapy partnered with Moderna to assess a tolerability issue. We assign this pipeline candidate a 10% probability of approval due to its early stage of development. We think the decision to pause rather than an immediate discontinuation indicates that management is likely encouraged by the other data generated by the study.

Narrow-moat Vertex Pharmaceuticals reported solid year-end results, highlighted by revenue of $11 billion, representing a 12% increase over 2023. We forecast $12 billion in revenue in 2025, representing growth of about 9%. We maintain our fair value estimate of $356 per share, and continue to have a positive outlook for the firm as it diversifies its portfolio beyond cystic fibrosis, or CF.

Narrow-moat Vertex released results from its phase 2 trial of suzetrigine, for the treatment of painful lumbosacral radiculopathy, and it met the primary endpoint with a statistically significant and clinically meaningful 2.02 point within-group reduction from baseline in the Numeric Pain Rating Scale. However, the placebo arm of the study also showed a similar within-group reduction in NPRS of 1.98. The comparison between the two cohorts spooked investors and shared tanked over 11%. We maintain our fair value estimate of $356 per share, and shares have moved into 3-star territory, trading about 11% above our fair value estimate.

Narrow-moat Vertex delivered solid third-quarter results, highlighted by a 12% increase in product revenue compared with the prior-year period. Strong demand for its triple-combination cystic fibrosis therapy, Trikafta/Kaftrio, delivered $2.58 billion in revenue, comprising 93% of the quarter’s product revenue. We appreciate that Vertex is progressing with its diverse pipeline of candidates. We forecast over $10.87 billion in total revenue in 2024, representing growth of about 10%. We maintain our fair value estimate of $356 per share, and we continue to have a positive outlook for the firm as it progresses in expanding its portfolio beyond cystic fibrosis.

Narrow-moat Vertex's second-quarter results were in line with our expectations. Product revenue of $2.65 billion represented a 6% increase compared with the prior-year period, and Vertex continues to make progress with its diverse pipeline candidates. Strong demand for its triple-combination cystic fibrosis therapy, Trikafta/Kaftrio, delivered $2.45 billion in revenue. Management slightly raised its 2024 revenue guidance by about 1% at the midpoint. We forecast over $10.83 billion in total revenue in 2024, representing growth of 9.8%. We maintain our fair value estimate of $356 per share, and we continue to have a positive outlook for the firm, as we forecast a five-year compound annual growth rate of 13%.

Narrow-moat Vertex delivered strong first-quarter results, highlighted by 13% product revenue growth year over year and continued progress across its diverse pipeline candidates. Robust uptake of its cystic fibrosis therapy, Trikafta/Kaftrio, delivered $2.48 billion in revenue, accounting for 92% of total revenue of $2.69 billion in the quarter. During the quarter, Vertex submitted regulatory filings for vanzacaftor triple, its new once-daily triple combination cystic fibrosis therapy, to the US Food and Drug Administration and the European Medicines Agency. We have increased our probability of approval for vanzacaftor triple to 75% in our base case, up from 65%, based on its strong data in clinical trials and continued progress. Vertex’s recently announced acquisition of Alpine Immune Sciences for $4.9 billion in cash is also on track to close in the second quarter. We appreciate that this acquisition will expand Vertex's kidney-disease portfolio, as Alpine's leading molecule, povetacicept, is being evaluated as a treatment for IgA nephropathy, a chronic kidney condition that can lead to end-stage renal disease. In phase 2 studies, povetacicept has shown potential best-in-class efficacy, and we like that povetacicept is on track to enter phase 3 clinical trials in the second half of 2024. Pending successful clinical data and approvals, we forecast povetacicept could contribute to revenue growth as early as 2028. We have raised our fair value estimate to $356 per share from $343 based on the higher estimated probability of approval for vanzacaftor triple and upside potential of povetacicept toward the end of our forecast period.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals was known for discovering blockbuster hepatitis C drug Incivek, which is now overshadowed by the company's robust cystic fibrosis franchise. Vertex's approved cystic fibrosis drugs—Kalydeco, Orkambi, Symdeko, and Trikafta—will make the firm eligible to treat about 90% of the CF population, assuming international and pediatric approvals. We expect Vertex to maintain its dominant position in CF, given the strong efficacy of its therapies, lengthy patents, and lack of competition, while developing pipeline candidates in other rare indications to spur growth.

Narrow-moat Vertex announced it will acquire Alpine Immune Sciences, a biotechnology company focused on discovering protein-based immunotherapies, for $4.9 billion in cash. The acquisition will expand Vertex's kidney-disease portfolio, as Alpine's leading molecule is being evaluated as a treatment for IgA nephropathy, or IgAN, a chronic kidney condition that can lead to end-stage renal disease. There are no approved therapies that target the underlying cause of IgAN, which affects about 130,000 people in the US. However, in Phase 2 studies, povetacicept has shown potential best-in-class efficacy in IgAN. We like that povetacicept is on track to enter Phase 3 clinical trials in the second half of 2024.