Company Reports

Shares of leading online travel agency companies Airbnb, Booking, and Expedia have declined about 10% during the last few trading sessions on fears that wide-moat Meta's AI agent, Muse, will disintermediate the platforms.

Despite near-term demand headwinds from the Iran conflict, Booking's leading network of hotel properties and other services continues to expand in developed and emerging markets, as well as in vertical markets such as rentals, attractions, flights, and payments (where it looks to focus on near-term investment), resulting in a fully connected trip offering. In developed markets, replicating Booking’s leading network in Europe is proving costly and time-consuming for key competitors, given that around 60%-65% of all hotels in the region are small boutique establishments. In emerging markets, the firm has a presence in China with its Trip.com and Meituan partnerships, and in its own Booking.com and Agoda.com platforms, which are crucial. This expanding network positions Booking well for the increasing global shift to booking via mobile applications.

Booking's second-quarter revenue increased 8%, ahead of its 4%-6% guidance, driven by a 5% lift in room nights. Adjusted EBITDA increased 9%, aided by decreased labor expense. The high-single-digit revenue growth target for 2026 was maintained. Shares rose 6% during Aug. 4 after-hours trading.

Despite near-term demand headwinds from the Iran conflict, Booking's leading network of hotel properties and other services continues to expand in developed and emerging markets, as well as in vertical markets such as rentals, attractions, flights, and payments (where it looks to focus on near-term investment), resulting in a fully connected trip offering. In developed markets, replicating Booking’s leading network in Europe is proving costly and time-consuming for key competitors, given that around 60%-65% of all hotels in the region are small boutique establishments. In emerging markets, the firm has a presence in China with its Trip.com and Meituan partnerships, and in its own Booking.com and Agoda.com platforms, which are crucial. This expanding network positions Booking well for the increasing global shift to booking via mobile applications.

Despite near-term demand headwinds in the Middle East from the Iran conflict, Booking's leading network of hotel properties and other services continues to expand in developed and emerging markets, as well as in vertical markets such as rentals, attractions, flights, and payments (where it looks to focus on near-term investment), resulting in a fully connected trip offering. In developed markets, replicating Booking’s leading network in Europe is proving costly and time-consuming for key competitors, given that around 60%-65% of all hotels in the region are small boutique establishments. In emerging markets, the firm has a presence in China with its Trip.com and Meituan partnerships, and in its own Booking.com and Agoda.com platforms, which are crucial. This expanding network positions Booking well for the increasing global shift to booking via mobile applications.

Booking's first-quarter sales increased 16%, despite a 2-percentage-point headwind from the Iran War. Adjusted EBITDA rose 19% due to fixed cost savings. Geopolitical uncertainty led the company to reduce its 2026 revenue guidance to high-single-digit growth from low-double-digit growth.

Booking's 25-for-1 share split instituted April 6 has no impact on the company's fundamental positioning. Booking's leading network of hotel properties and other services continues to expand in developed and emerging markets, as well as vertical markets such as rentals, attractions, flights, and payments (where it looks to focus on near-term investment), resulting in a fully connected trip offering. In developed markets, replicating Booking’s leading network in Europe is proving costly and time-consuming for key competitors, given that around 60%-65% of all hotels in the region are small boutique establishments. In emerging markets, the firm has a presence in China with its Trip.com and Meituan partnerships, and in its own Booking.com and Agoda.com platforms, which are crucial. This expanding network positions Booking well for the increasing global shift to booking via mobile applications.

Booking's leading network of hotel properties and other services continues to expand in developed and emerging markets, as well as vertical markets such as rentals, attractions, flights, and payments (where it looks to focus on near-term investment), resulting in a fully connected trip offering. In developed markets, replicating Booking’s leading network in Europe is proving costly and time-consuming for key competitors, given that around 60%-65% of all hotels in the region are small boutique establishments. In emerging markets, the firm has a presence in China with its Trip.com and Meituan-Dianping partnerships, and in its own Booking.com and Agoda.com platforms, which are crucial. This expanding network positions Booking well for the increasing global shift to booking via mobile applications.

Booking's fourth-quarter revenue increased 16%, above the company's 10%-12% guidance, driven by 9% room night growth, compared with the firm's 6%-8% target, and 500 basis points of currency benefit. Adjusted EBITDA rose 19% versus its 8%-14% prognosis, helped by artificial intelligence efficiencies.

Shares of online travel agency companies were down meaningfully during Feb. 3 trading, as news of Anthropic's legal tool raised concern that many existing software and applications would eventually be displaced by artificial intelligence.

Booking's leading network of hotel properties and other services continues to expand in developed and emerging markets, as well as vertical markets such as rentals, attractions, flights, and payments (where it looks to focus on near-term investment), resulting in a fully connected trip offering. In developed markets, replicating Booking’s leading network in Europe is proving costly and time-consuming for key competitors, given that around 60%-65% of all hotels in the region are small boutique establishments. In emerging markets, the firm has a presence in China with its Trip.com and Meituan-Dianping partnerships, and in its own Booking.com and Agoda.com platforms, which are crucial. This expanding network positions Booking well for the increasing global shift to booking via mobile applications.

Booking Holdings' third-quarter bookings increased 14%, above our 13% estimate, driven by strength in Asia markets and the alternative accommodation vertical. EBITDA rose 15%, as marketing rose just 9% to 4.7% of total bookings.

Although softer US consumer sentiment presents a near-term headwind, Booking's leading network of hotel properties and other services continues to expand in developed and emerging markets, as well as vertical markets such as rentals, attractions, flights, and payments (where it looks to focus on near-term investment), resulting in a fully connected trip offering. In developed markets, replicating Booking’s leading network in Europe is proving costly and time-consuming for key competitors, given that around 60%-65% of all hotels in the region are small boutique establishments. In emerging markets, the firm has a presence in China with its Trip.com and Meituan-Dianping partnerships, and in its own Booking.com and Agoda.com platforms, which are crucial. This expanding network positions Booking well for the increasing global shift to booking via mobile applications.

Booking's reservations increased 13%, ahead of its guidance for 10%-12% growth, led by room nights lifting 8% (4%-6%) and a 4-percentage-point currency benefit. Adjusted EBITDA was up 28% (13%-16%) on fixed and marketing cost leverage.

Although weaker US consumer sentiment presents a near-term headwind, Booking's leading network of hotel properties and other services, continues to expand in developed and emerging markets, as well as vertical markets such as rentals, attractions, flights, and payments (where it looks to focus on near-term investment), resulting in a fully connected trip offering. In developed markets, replicating Booking’s leading network in Europe is proving costly and time-consuming for key competitors, given that around 60%-65% of all hotels in the region are small boutique establishments. In emerging markets, the firm has a presence in China with its Trip.com and Meituan-Dianping partnerships, and in its own Booking.com and Agoda.com platforms, which is crucial. This expanding network positions Booking well for the increasing global shift to booking via mobile applications. Booking.com is a top-10 travel iOS application in 143 markets versus 114 for Airbnb and 22 for core Expedia, according to App Annie on Feb. 5, 2025.

First-quarter bookings and room nights increased by 7%, hitting the high end of Booking's 5%-7% guidance, as demand for travel remained stable. But the firm reduced its 2025 constant-currency sales growth target to mid- to high-single digits from at least 8% amid low macrovisibility.

Shares of our online travel coverage dropped 5%-9% on April 3 after President Donald Trump announced a 10% baseline tariff on all imports, with select countries facing higher tariffs.

Although waning US consumer sentiment presents a near-term headwind, Booking's leading network of hotel properties and other services, continues to expand in developed and emerging markets, as well as vertical markets such as rentals, attractions, flights, and payments (where it looks to focus on near-term investment), resulting in a fully connected trip offering. In developed markets, replicating Booking’s leading network in Europe is proving costly and time-consuming for key competitors, given that around 60%-65% of all hotels in the region are small boutique establishments. In emerging markets, the firm has a presence in China with its Trip.com and Meituan-Dianping partnerships, and in its own Booking.com and Agoda.com platforms, which is crucial. This expanding network positions Booking well for the increasing global shift to booking via mobile applications. Booking.com is a top-10 travel iOS application in 143 markets versus 114 for Airbnb and 22 for core Expedia, according to App Annie on Feb. 5, 2025.

Booking has built a leading network of hotel properties and other services, which drives an increasing user base. We see this network effect continuing to expand in developed and emerging markets, as well as vertical markets such as rentals, attractions, flights, and payments (where it looks to focus on near-term investment), resulting in a fully connected trip offering. In developed markets, replicating Booking’s leading network in Europe is proving costly and time-consuming for key competitors, given that around 60%-65% of all hotels in the region are small boutique establishments. In emerging markets, the firm has a presence in China with its Trip.com and Meituan-Dianping partnerships, and in its own Booking.com and Agoda.com platforms, which is crucial. This expanding network positions Booking well for the increasing global shift to booking via mobile applications. Booking.com is a top-10 travel iOS application in 143 markets versus 114 for Airbnb and 22 for core Expedia, according to App Annie on Feb. 5, 2025.

We have upgraded our moat rating for Booking to wide from narrow, driven by its strengthening network advantage and our view that the company is well positioned for artificial intelligence. The change results in our fair value estimate increasing to $4,800 per share from $4,600. We see shares as slightly undervalued.