Company Reports

ExxonMobil is pursuing a disciplined, high-return growth strategy to deliver $25 billion in annual earnings growth by 2030 relative to 2024 baseline levels. Although spending is higher than mid-2020s trough levels, capital discipline remains intact, with cash capital expenditures roughly flat in the near term at $27 billion-$29 billion. Through 2030, it could increase marginally, with guidance of $28 billion-$32 billion, but the company will be larger, resulting in lower reinvestment rates.

ExxonMobil's second-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings fell slightly short of expectations. Earnings and cash flow significantly improved as timing effects from mark-to-market derivative requirements unwound during the quarter. Shareholders' return guidance was unchanged.

Exxon reported first-quarter earnings that exceeded expectations. Earnings and cash flow were both negatively affected by timing effects from mark-to-market derivative requirements, given the high volatility during the quarter. Buyback guidance of $20 billion was unchanged.

The launch of the Iran war has sent global oil and gas prices and refining margins higher. Incorporating the latest futures curves resulted in a revision to our fair value estimates for the major oil companies.

Exxon is departing from industry trends by increasing spending relative to years past to deliver $25 billion in earnings growth by 2030. Although higher spending may seem alarming given the industry’s history of prioritizing growth over returns, Exxon’s differentiated portfolio should enable it to pursue growth while maintaining capital discipline and delivering returns. Its differentiated Guyana position and enlarged Permian position remain at the core of its portfolio, offering capital-efficient volume and earnings growth. Meanwhile, the breadth of its downstream businesses opens new low-carbon business opportunities.

Exxon reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $7.3 billion, slightly above market expectations. Earnings fell from the prior year as lower oil prices offset the benefits of higher volumes and stronger refining margins. It delivered 10 projects with an annual earnings capacity of $3 billion.

Exxon is departing from industry trends by increasing spending relative to years past to deliver $25 billion in earnings growth by 2030. Although higher spending may seem alarming given the industry’s history of pursuing growth at the expense of returns, Exxon’s differentiated portfolio should enable it to pursue growth while maintaining capital discipline and delivering returns. Its differentiated Guyana position and enlarged Permian position remain at the core of its portfolio, offering capital-efficient volume and earnings growth. Meanwhile, the breadth of its downstream businesses opens new low-carbon business opportunities.

On the morning of Jan. 3, 2026, US forces deposed Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro. US President Donald Trump indicated the US will run Venezuela until there can be a "proper transition" and has highlighted his desire to substantially increase US private investment in Venezuela's oil infrastructure.

In the wake of the capture and arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, Trump administration officials signaled that US companies would be involved in the restoration of Venezuelan crude production.

Exxon now expects 2030 earnings of $25 billion, up from $20 billion previously, driven in part by an increase in structural cost savings to $20 billion from $18 billion. It narrowed the upper end of its expected capital expenditure range for 2027-30, in part due to reduced lower-emission spending.

Exxon's third-quarter earnings surpassed market expectations, falling to $8.1 billion from $8.6 billion a year ago, but increasing from the second quarter. Lower oil prices weighed on earnings, offset in part by higher volumes and stronger refining margins. Capital return guidance was unchanged.

We've updated our midcycle oil price assumption. Our 10-year forecast marries our bullish in-house oil demand view with Rystad's supply projections, which align with our revised, long-term take.

Exxon is departing from industry trends by increasing spending to deliver $20 billion in earnings growth by 2030. Although the higher spending might sound alarming given the industry’s history of pursuing growth at the expense of returns, Exxon’s differentiated portfolio should enable it to do so while maintaining capital discipline and delivering returns. Its differentiated Guyana position and enlarged Permian position remain at the core of its portfolio, which offers capital-efficient volume and earnings growth. Meanwhile, the breadth of its downstream businesses opens new low-carbon business opportunities.

Exxon's second-quarter earnings surpassed market expectations, falling to $7.1 billion from $9.2 billion a year ago, mainly on lower oil prices and refining margins. But strong volume growth, further structural cost reduction, and contributions from new projects mitigated the impact of lower prices.

The International Chamber of Commerce has ruled that Chevron's proposed acquisition of Hess does not give ExxonMobil the right of refusal for Hess' Guyana assets. As a result, Chevron can proceed with the acquisition, which was delayed when Exxon filed for arbitration last year.

Crude oil prices were only up about 1% in early trading on June 23 after the US bombed Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend. Before this rise, oil prices had increased nearly 21% in the last month compared with oil equities, as measured by the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund's 9% gain.

Exxon's first-quarter earnings of $7.7 billion surpassed market expectations while falling from $8.2 billion a year ago on lower commodity prices and refining margins. It left full-year repurchase guidance of $20 billion in place. Net debt to capital ticked up slightly to 7% even as total debt fell.

Exxon's fourth-quarter earnings of $7.4 billion surpassed market expectations. For the full year, Exxon produced 4.3 mmboed, including a record 1.2 mmboed from the Permian. At year-end, it had reduced structural costs by $12 billion since 2019.

Exxon is departing from industry trends by increasing spending to deliver $20 billion in earnings growth by 2030. Although the higher spending might sound alarming given the industry’s history of pursuing growth at the expense of returns, Exxon’s differentiated portfolio should enable it to do so while maintaining capital discipline and delivering returns. Its differentiated Guyana position and enlarged Permian position remain at the core of its portfolio, which offers capital-efficient volume and earnings growth. Meanwhile, the breadth of its downstream businesses opens new low-carbon business opportunities.

ExxonMobil plans to increase spending through 2030 to grow production to 5.4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, increase earnings by over $20 billion, generate about $165 billion in surplus cash, and achieve a 17% return on capital. It will repurchase $20 billion in shares in 2025 and 2026.