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Company Report

Essex Property Trust is the most geographically focused multifamily real estate investment trust, with a portfolio of high-quality multifamily buildings positioned entirely on the West Coast: Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, San Jose, and Seattle. These markets should experience strong, long-term demographic trends like job growth, income growth, decreasing homeownership rates, high relative cost of single-family housing, and attractive urban centers that draw younger populations, allowing the company to maintain high occupancies and drive rent growth above the US average. Long term, we expect the company's markets to see job and income growth above the national average, which should continue to support above-average net operating income growth, though some of these markets are experiencing near-term slowdowns. The company's solid internal operating outlook should be supplemented by its small but opportunistic development pipeline to create value for shareholders.
Company Report

Essex Property Trust is the most geographically focused multifamily real estate investment trust, with a portfolio of high-quality multifamily buildings positioned entirely on the West Coast: Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, San Jose, and Seattle. These markets should experience strong, long-term demographic trends like job growth, income growth, decreasing homeownership rates, high relative cost of single-family housing, and attractive urban centers that draw younger populations, allowing the company to maintain high occupancies and drive rent growth above the US average. Long term, we expect the company's markets to see job and income growth above the national average, which should continue to support above-average net operating income growth, though some of these markets are experiencing near-term slowdowns. The company's solid internal operating outlook should be supplemented by its small but opportunistic development pipeline to create value for shareholders.
Company Report

Essex Property Trust is the most geographically focused multifamily real estate investment trust, with a portfolio of high-quality multifamily buildings positioned entirely on the West Coast: Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, San Jose, and Seattle. These markets should experience strong, long-term demographic trends like job growth, income growth, decreasing homeownership rates, high relative cost of single-family housing, and attractive urban centers that draw younger populations, allowing the company to maintain high occupancies and drive rent growth above the US average. Long term, we expect the company's markets to see job and income growth above the national average, which should continue to support above-average net operating income growth, though some of these markets are experiencing near-term slowdowns. The company's solid internal operating outlook should be supplemented by its small but opportunistic development pipeline to create value for shareholders.
Company Report

Essex Property Trust is the most geographically focused multifamily real estate investment trust, with a portfolio of high-quality multifamily buildings positioned entirely on the West Coast: Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, San Jose, and Seattle. These markets should experience strong, long-term demographic trends like job growth, income growth, decreasing homeownership rates, high relative cost of single-family housing, and attractive urban centers that draw younger populations, allowing the company to maintain high occupancies and drive rent growth above the US average. Long term, we expect the company's markets to see job and income growth above the national average, which should continue to support above-average net operating income growth, though some of these markets are experiencing near-term slowdowns. The company's solid internal operating outlook should be supplemented by its small but opportunistic development pipeline to create value for shareholders.
Company Report

Essex Property Trust is the most geographically focused multifamily real estate investment trust, with a portfolio of high-quality multifamily buildings positioned entirely on the West Coast: Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, San Jose, and Seattle. These markets should experience strong, long-term demographic trends like job growth, income growth, decreasing homeownership rates, high relative cost of single-family housing, and attractive urban centers that draw younger populations, allowing the company to maintain high occupancies and drive rent growth above the US average. Long term, we expect the company's markets to see job and income growth above the national average, which should continue to support above-average net operating income growth, though some of these markets are experiencing near-term slowdowns. The company's solid internal operating outlook should be supplemented by its small but opportunistic development pipeline to create value for shareholders.
Stock Analyst Note

Essex Property Trust reported fourth-quarter earnings that were relatively in line with our expectations, leading us to reaffirm our $306 fair value estimate for the no-moat company. Same-store occupancy sequentially fell 30 basis points to 95.9% in the fourth quarter while average rental rates were up 1.9% year over year. However, the company benefited from higher other-property revenues, leading to same-store revenue growth of 2.6% and 3.2% growth after removing a noncash charge taken during the quarter, which matched our 3.2% growth estimate for the fourth quarter. However, same-store operating expenses remain high, with the company reporting 4.7% expense growth, leading to same-store net operating income growth of 1.7%, which was below our 2.7% estimate. Still, Essex reported slightly higher joint venture income compared with our expectations, so core funds from operations came in at $3.92 per share for the fourth quarter, in line with our $3.91 estimate.
Company Report

Essex Property Trust is the most geographically focused multifamily real estate investment trust, with a portfolio of high-quality multifamily buildings positioned entirely on the West Coast: Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, San Jose, and Seattle. These markets should experience strong, long-term demographic trends like job growth, income growth, decreasing homeownership rates, high relative cost of single-family housing, and attractive urban centers that draw younger populations, allowing the company to maintain high occupancies and drive rent growth above the US average. Long term, we expect the company's markets to see job and income growth above the national average, which should continue to support above-average net operating income growth, though some of these markets are experiencing near-term slowdowns. The company's solid internal operating outlook should be supplemented by its small but opportunistic development pipeline to create value for shareholders.
Stock Analyst Note

Over the past few years, we have observed an inverse relationship between share prices in the REIT sector and interest-rate movements. We believe a major reason is that all commercial real estate valuations are connected to interest rates. Capitalization rates directly indicate the return expectations for a real estate investment and expectations for risk and growth. Historically, we have observed that commercial real trades at cap rates consistently spread above the 10-year US Treasury. If interest rates rise, investors will require a higher return, and thus a higher cap rate, to accept the risk associated with an investment in a real estate asset. Since return expectations have held relatively steady for most real estate sectors over the past few years, higher cap rates translate to falling prices for real estate.
Stock Analyst Note

Essex Property Trust's third-quarter results were slightly better than we anticipated, giving us confidence in our $306 fair value estimate for the no-moat company. Same-store occupancy remained flat sequentially at 96.2%, matching our estimate. Average rental rates were up 1.8% year over year. Same-store revenue was up 3.5%, slightly better than our estimate of 2.8%, as fewer delinquencies on rent payments increased revenue growth by 1.3% and higher other income increased revenue growth by 0.8%. However, same-store operating expenses rose 5.5% in the quarter, higher than our estimate of 4.3%, as utilities costs were up 10.5% and personnel costs were up 5.0%. As a result, same-store net operating income growth was just 2.6% in the third quarter, though that was slightly higher than our estimate of 2.1%. Essex reported core funds from operations of $3.91 per share, 3.4% higher than the $3.78 reported in the third quarter of 2023.
Stock Analyst Note

The REIT sector in the US offers many companies that should see relatively stable cashflow growth over the next several years. While the pandemic hurt REIT valuations in 2020, the recovery of fundamentals across most sectors combined with low interest rates led to strong total returns in 2021 and early 2022. However, despite fundamentals continuing to perform well over the past three years with many reaching historical levels of net operating income growth, the REIT sector underperformed the broader equity markets in 2023 and into the first half of 2024. We believe that is due to the sector’s negative correlation with interest rates, as income-oriented investors rotate out of the sector, higher rates lower the value REITs can create with external growth, and property valuations fall in line with higher rates. However, interest rates have fallen since the end of July, leading to a rally for the REIT sector. Still, we still view many of companies in the US REIT sector as being undervalued as the companies should continue to produce solid long-term growth.
Stock Analyst Note

Despite a rally over the past two months, we still view the US REIT sector as being undervalued. While the pandemic hurt REIT valuations in 2020, the recovery of fundamentals across most sectors led combined with low interest rates led to strong total returns in 2021 and early 2022. However, despite fundamentals continuing to perform well over the past three years, with many reaching historical levels of net operating income growth, the REIT sector has underperformed the broader equity markets in 2023 and into the first half of 2024. We believe that the cause has been due to the sector's negative correlation with interest rates as income-oriented investors rotate out of the sector, higher rates lower the value REITs can create with external growth, and property valuations fall in line with higher rates. However, interest rates have fallen since the end of July, leading to a rally for the REIT sector. We believe that US REITs will continue to see share price movements that are inverse of interest rate movements.
Stock Analyst Note

Essex Property Trust reported second-quarter results that were relatively in line with our expectations, leading us to reaffirm our $306 fair value estimate for the no-moat company. Same-store occupancy declined 10 basis points sequentially to 96.2% while average rental rates for the same-store portfolio were only up 1.8% year over year. However, Essex saw considerably fewer delinquencies and higher other property revenue in the quarter, leading to same-store revenue growth of 3.4% that was slightly ahead of our 3.0% estimate. Same-store operating expenses were up 4.5%, matching our estimate, and the company reported same-store net operating income growth of 3.0% for the second quarter that was better than our estimate of 2.4% growth. Essex reported core funds from operations of $3.94 per share in the second quarter, a penny better than our $3.93 estimate and 4.5% higher than the $3.77 figure the company reported in the second quarter of 2023.
Company Report

Essex Property Trust is the most geographically focused multifamily real estate investment trust, with a portfolio of high-quality multifamily buildings positioned entirely on the West Coast: Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, San Jose, and Seattle. These markets should experience strong, long-term demographic trends like job growth, income growth, decreasing homeownership rates, high relative cost of single-family housing, and attractive urban centers that draw younger populations, which allows the company to maintain high occupancies and drive rent growth above the US average. Long term we expect the company's markets to see job and income growth above national average, which should continue to support above average net operating income growth, though some of these markets are experiencing near-term slowdowns. The company's solid internal operating outlook should be supplemented by its small but opportunistic development pipeline to create value for shareholders.
Stock Analyst Note

The US REIT sector remains significantly undervalued, in our perspective. While the pandemic hurt REIT valuations in 2020, the recovery of fundamentals across most sectors combined with low interest rates led to strong total returns in 2021 and early 2022. However, despite fundamentals continuing to perform well over the past two years, with many REITs reaching historical levels of net operating income growth, the sector has underperformed the broader equity markets over the past two years. We believe that the cause has been the sector’s negative correlation with interest rates as income-oriented investors rotate out of the sector, higher rates lower the value REITs can create with external growth, and property valuations fall in line with higher rates. However, we don’t believe that higher rates significantly change our fair value estimates for the sector. Additionally, interest rates are down from the October 2023 highs, and REIT share prices have generally inversely followed the movements of the US 10-year Treasury.

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