Company Reports

Comcast’s core cable business enjoys significant competitive advantages but has seen growth slow as fixed-wireless offerings have provided a viable option for a subset of customers. NBCUniversal isn’t as well positioned but holds unique assets, including core content franchises and theme parks. We don’t love the firm’s strategy around Peacock, but we expect NBCU’s assets will play a significant role in the media landscape of the future. Overall, we expect Comcast will deliver only modest growth but with strong cash flow for the foreseeable future.

Comcast's first-quarter headline numbers were weak. The firm lost 65,000 net broadband customers, its worst performance ever, as fixed-wireless offerings continue to take market share. Wireless customer growth dropped to the slowest pace in more than two years. Peacock added 3 million new paying customers, but that figure only matched the number of signups tied to the exclusive NFL playoff game in January, as estimated by Antenna. The theme park business hit a wall, growing revenue only 1.5% year over year, with traffic weakening in Orlando. Consolidated revenue increased 1.2% year over year, and EBITDA was roughly flat.

Comcast’s core cable business enjoys significant competitive advantages but has seen growth slow as fixed-wireless offerings have provided a viable option for a subset of customers. NBCUniversal isn’t as well positioned but holds unique assets, including core content franchises and theme parks. We don’t love the firm’s strategy around Peacock, but we expect NBCU’s assets will play a significant role in the media landscape of the future. Overall, we expect Comcast will deliver only modest growth but with strong cash flow for the foreseeable future.

Pricing discipline remains the most important factor driving Comcast’s performance, in our view. While the broadband market is clearly more competitive than in years past, Comcast has protected the value of its customer base, accepting modest customer losses while maintaining steady growth in revenue per customer. Management signaled revenue per broadband customer will again increase 3%-4% in 2024. T-Mobile’s broadband price increase last week is the latest indication that competition, while intense, remains highly rational.

Comcast’s core cable business enjoys significant competitive advantages but has seen growth slow as fixed-wireless offerings have provided a viable option for a subset of customers. NBCUniversal isn’t as well positioned but holds unique assets, including core content franchises and theme parks. We don’t love the firm’s strategy around Peacock, but we expect NBCU’s assets will play a significant role in the media landscape of the future. Overall, we expect Comcast will deliver only modest growth but with strong cash flow for the foreseeable future.

Investors cheered last quarter when Comcast posted smaller broadband customer losses than typical seasonality would have suggested were likely. The opposite has now occurred as the back-to-school season failed to deliver customer growth during the third quarter. The decline in housing sales has muted typical seasonality, but the broadband market is also clearly more competitive than in years past. We continue to believe broadband competition remains highly rational, however, and that Comcast is well-positioned to maintain market share. Our fair value estimate remains $60.

Comcast’s net broadband customer losses during the second quarter were significantly smaller than feared, while pricing discipline continued to drive impressive margin expansion. Our fair value estimate remains $60 per share.

Comcast’s core cable business enjoys significant competitive advantages but has seen growth slow as fixed-wireless offerings have provided a viable option for a subset of customers. NBCUniversal isn’t as well positioned but holds unique assets, including core content franchises and theme parks. We don’t love the firm’s strategy around Peacock, but we expect NBCU’s assets will play a significant role in the media landscape of the future. Overall, we expect Comcast will deliver only modest growth but with strong cash flow for the foreseeable future.

Comcast’s core cable business enjoys significant competitive advantages but will likely see growth slow as competition for incremental customers heats up. NBCUniversal isn’t as well positioned but holds unique assets, including core content franchises and theme parks, that should help ease the transition away from the traditional television business. Overall, we expect Comcast will deliver modest growth with strong cash flow for the foreseeable future.

U.S. broadband customer growth was again anemic during the first quarter, but Comcast's pricing and cost discipline delivered solid financial results. Our fair value estimate remains at $60, and we believe the stock remains significantly undervalued.

Comcast’s fourth-quarter results won’t change the negative narrative around the firm. Broadband customer growth remains anemic, which isn’t a surprise. Peacock took a step forward with customers, adding 5 million paying accounts over the last three months of 2022, taking the total to 20 million. But Peacock losses hit nearly $1 billion during the quarter and $2.5 billion for the year, crushing margins at NBC Universal. We still believe that Comcast is well positioned to limit broadband share losses to competitors in the coming years while enjoying solid pricing power. NBCU is more challenged, but we like the effort to expand the theme park business to build around and support key content franchises. Our fair value estimate remains $60, and we believe the stock is significantly undervalued.

Comcast’s core cable business enjoys significant competitive advantages but will likely see growth slow as competition for incremental customers heats up. NBCUniversal isn’t as well positioned but holds unique assets, including core content franchises and theme parks, that should help ease the transition away from the traditional television business. Overall, we expect Comcast will deliver modest growth with strong cash flow for the foreseeable future.

Investors seem relieved that broadband trends didn’t worsen during the third quarter at Comcast. We also believe the expectations baked into the firm’s share price are extremely low. We don’t expect a return to mid-single-digit growth rates of the recent past; we think investors should focus more on cash flow and capital allocation than small changes in broadband customer metrics. Comcast has generated about $3.40 per share in free cash flow over the past year, which it has returned, and then some, to shareholders through buybacks and dividends. Management indicated that at the current share price, the bar for acquisitions is high. Given our unchanged $60 fair value estimate, we agree that buying back stock aggressively is a great way to increase shareholder value.

Comcast’s core cable business, which accounts for more than half of the firm’s value, enjoys significant competitive advantages but will likely see growth slow as competition for incremental customers heats up. NBCUniversal isn’t as well positioned but holds unique assets, including core content franchises and theme parks, that should help the transition away from the traditional television business. Overall, we expect Comcast will deliver modest growth with strong cash flow for the foreseeable future.

Comcast’s second quarter was a mixed bag, but the market has keyed in on one negative figure: zero net broadband customer additions during the period, with a loss of 10,000 net residential customers. Very modest broadband growth is likely here to stay; we believe investors are better served focusing on the firm’s ability to generate strong cash flow despite lingering pandemic headwinds and to return that cash to shareholders. Our $60 fair value estimate is unchanged.

Comcast’s core cable business, which accounts for more than half of the firm’s value, enjoys significant competitive advantages but will likely see growth slow as competition for incremental customers heats up. NBCUniversal isn’t as well positioned but holds unique assets, including core content franchises and theme parks, that should help the transition away from the traditional television business. Overall, we expect Comcast will deliver modest growth with strong cash flow for the foreseeable future.

Growth in Comcast’s cable business has clearly slowed—and will likely continue to slow—as more customers gain access to fiber and wireless network alternatives. In that light, we don’t believe weak broadband customer growth during the first quarter was surprising. To us, however, the stock is reacting as if the firm is now headed for years of steep customer losses. We don’t believe that is likely. We are leaving our fair value estimate at $60 and believe the stock is highly undervalued.

Comcast’s core cable business, which accounts for more than half of the firm’s value, enjoys significant competitive advantages but will likely see growth slow as competition for incremental customers heats up. NBCUniversal isn’t as well positioned but holds unique assets, including core content franchises and theme parks, that should help the transition

Comcast’s core cable business, which accounts for more than half of the firm’s value, enjoys significant competitive advantages but will likely see growth slow as competition for incremental customers heats up. NBCUniversal isn’t as well positioned but holds unique assets, including core content franchises and theme parks, that should help the transition

We are leaving our Comcast fair value estimate at $60 per share after reviewing fourth-quarter earnings. The firm again posted a drop in broadband customer additions during the period (212,000 versus 538,000 a year ago), which management continues to ascribe to a slowdown in housing activity. We agree that factors tied to the pandemic are weighing on the market--rivals AT&T and Verizon haven’t reported especially strong growth--but we expect increasing competition at the margins will steadily pressure Comcast in the coming years.