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Stock Analyst Note

Wide-moat Coca-Cola delivered strong 2024 results, including increases of 12% and 7%, respectively, in organic sales and comparable EPS. Notably, global unit case volume expanded 1% for the year despite consumer pullback and geopolitical uncertainties. This resilient performance reaffirmed our investment thesis for Coke that is underpinned by its total beverage portfolio approach, steadfast commitment to product innovations and brand investments, and strong in-market execution. For 2025, we think management's outlook for organic sales growth of 5%-6% looks achievable on a balanced blend of volume and price increases, but we plan to trim our adjusted EPS estimate, before the earnings call, of $3.04 by a low-single-digit percentage to incorporate higher foreign currency headwinds. We don't plan any material changes to our $64 fair value estimate, and we view shares as fully valued.
Stock Analyst Note

Despite headwinds from consumer belt-tightening and geopolitical uncertainties, wide-moat Coca Cola delivered solid third-quarter results, including 9% and 5% growth in organic sales and comparable earnings per share, respectively. The resilient performance reaffirmed our constructive view on Coke’s long-term growth outlook underpinned by its total beverage portfolio strategy and unwavering commitment to product innovation and brand investment. We plan to maintain our 2024 sales and adjusted EPS forecasts of $46 billion and $2.86, respectively, which align with management's outlook, and our 10-year forecasts for mid-single-digit annual sales growth and low 30s operating margins. We maintain our $64 fair value estimate, and shares look fully valued.
Stock Analyst Note

Wide-moat Coca-Cola issued a statement on Aug. 2 confirming that the US Tax Court has ruled to support the position of the US Internal Revenue Service that the beverage giant owes $2.7 billion in taxes ($6 billion including interests) relating to the 2007-09 period. However, the market appeared unfazed, with shares up 1% in trading. We think the absence of material price movements on the news is at least partly due to Coke’s detailed disclosure regarding the ongoing tax case in recent filings that eased investor angst. We also think that the market appears to side with Coke’s own assessment of the tax situation, with the firm’s tax reserve related to the dispute at a more modest $450 million.
Stock Analyst Note

We plan to raise our $60 per share fair value estimate for wide-moat Coca-Cola by a low-single-digit percentage after digesting its strong second-quarter results and updated outlook. However, we view the stock as fully valued even after the planned increase in intrinsic valuation. Organic sales rose 15%, led by innovations, digital initiatives, and deft in-market executions, and adjusted earnings per share were up 7%. This was with a softer consumer backdrop in the US and continued instability and macro challenges across Europe, Latin America, and Asia. Coke remains poised to fuel volume and pricing growth, aided by its total beverage portfolio approach, steadfast investments in product innovation, and brand marketing. We plan to tick up our 2024 sales and adjusted EPS estimates by low-single-digit percentages to align with management’s raised guidance, while our 10-year projection for mid-single-digit sales growth and a low-30s average operating margin remains in place.

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