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Company Report

CME Group enjoyed favorable market conditions in 2025, as volatility across multiple asset classes drove higher trading volume, resulting in strong revenue growth. CME has enjoyed accelerated revenue growth since 2022, as heightened interest-rate uncertainty has led to sustained growth in interest-rate futures volume. We expect this tailwind to persist in 2026 before diminishing in 2027, contributing to our expectation for a deceleration in growth next year.
Company Report

CME Group enjoyed favorable market conditions in 2025, as volatility across multiple asset classes drove higher trading volume, resulting in strong revenue growth. CME has enjoyed accelerated revenue growth since 2022, as heightened interest-rate uncertainty has led to sustained growth in interest-rate futures volume. We expect this tailwind to persist in 2026 before diminishing in 2027, contributing to our expectation for a deceleration in growth next year.
Company Report

CME Group enjoyed favorable market conditions in 2025 as volatility across multiple asset classes drove increased trading volume, leading to strong revenue growth. CME has enjoyed a period of accelerated revenue growth since 2022, as increased interest rate uncertainty has led to a sustained increase in interest rate futures volume. We expect this tailwind to persist in 2026 before diminishing in 2027, contributing to our expectation for a deceleration in growth next year.
Stock Analyst Note

CME reported decent third-quarter results as trading activity normalized from recent highs. Revenue fell 3% from last year and 9% from last quarter to $1.54 billion. Meanwhile, earnings per share fell to $2.49 from $2.51 as higher expenses were offset by strong nonoperating income.
Company Report

CME Group enjoyed favorable market conditions in 2024 as volatility across multiple asset classes drove increased trading volume, leading to strong revenue growth. Before 2023, the most significant headwind for the company had been the impact that low short-term interest rates had on its interest-rate futures, which are its largest source of revenue. When interest rates are expected to stay low, there is less need for interest-rate hedging and less incentive for speculation, creating a drag on CME's trading volume. However, since 2023 this complacency has been replaced by heightened uncertainty, swinging interest-rate futures volume from a cyclical low to a cyclical high, driving accelerated growth. That said, we think this tailwind has mostly played out, and we expect interest-rate futures growth to be slower once conditions normalize.
Company Report

CME Group enjoyed favorable market conditions in 2024 as volatility across multiple asset classes drove increased trading volume, leading to strong revenue growth. Before 2023, the most significant headwind for the company had been the impact that low short-term interest rates had on its interest-rate futures, which are its largest source of revenue. When interest rates are expected to stay low, there is less need for interest-rate hedging and less incentive for speculation, creating a drag on CME's trading volume. However, since 2023 this complacency has been replaced by heightened uncertainty, swinging interest-rate futures volume from a cyclical low to a cyclical high, driving accelerated growth. That said, we think this tailwind has mostly played out, and we expect interest-rate futures growth to be slower as conditions normalize.
Stock Analyst Note

Wide-moat-rated CME group reported strong third-quarter earnings that were in line with our expectations as the company benefits from strong trading volume in multiple major asset classes. Net revenue increased 18% from last year and 3.4% from last quarter to $1.58 billion. Meanwhile, diluted earnings per share increased to $2.50 from $2.06 last year. While these were strong results, they were not surprising as the firm’s monthly trading volume reports had built up expectations heading into the earnings release. As we incorporate these results, we do not expect to materially alter our $225 fair value estimate for CME. We see the shares as fairly valued at the current price.
Company Report

CME Group has enjoyed favorable market conditions in 2024 as volatility across multiple asset classes drove increased trading volume, leading to strong revenue growth. Before 2022, the most significant headwind for the company had been the impact that low short-term interest rates had on its interest-rate futures, which are its largest source of revenue. When interest rates are expected to stay low, there is less need for interest-rate hedging and less incentive for speculation, creating a drag on CME's trading volume. With interest rates now well above the 0% rate we saw during much of the past decade, the drag has been removed, benefiting the company's growth. After multiple years of elevated volume growth, however, we think this tailwind has played out, and we expect interest-rate futures growth to be slower going forward.
Stock Analyst Note

Wide-moat-rated CME Group reported strong second-quarter earnings as the company enjoyed high trading volume growth across all asset classes. Revenue increased 12.7% from last year and 3% from last quarter to $1.53 billion. Meanwhile, diluted earnings per share increased 13% from last year to $2.42, though the company did benefit from one extra trading day in the quarter. As we incorporate these results, we do not expect to materially alter our $225 fair value estimate. We see the company as modestly undervalued at the current price, though we note that once interest rates begin to decline the firm will face headwinds on earnings growth.
Stock Analyst Note

Wide-moat-rated CME Group reported solid earnings that were in line with our expectations as the company benefits from strong futures trading volume, particularly for the firm’s energy and commodity futures. Revenue increased 3.2% from last year to $1.49 billion, while earnings per share fell to $2.35 from $2.43. The drop in earnings per share was entirely due to a decrease in nonoperating investment income. This was a stronger quarter than the year-over-year comparisons imply. The first quarter of 2023 benefited from the regional banking crisis, which caused a sharp temporary spike in interest rate futures trading. As we incorporate these results, we do not plan to materially alter our $225 fair value estimate for CME, and we see the shares as only slightly undervalued.
Company Report

CME Group has enjoyed favorable market conditions in 2022 and 2023 as volatility across multiple asset classes drove increased trading volume, leading to strong revenue growth. Prior to 2022, the most significant headwind for the company had been the impact that low short-term interest rates had on its interest rate futures, which are its largest source of revenue. When interest rates are expected to stay low there is less need for interest rate hedging and less incentive for speculation, creating a drag on CME's trading volume. With interest rates now well above the 0% rate we saw during much of the past decade, the drag has been removed, benefiting the company's growth. That said, this was a one-time benefit, and we expect CME's revenue growth to return to the low to midsingle digits going forward, particularly as 2023 featured unusually large price increases from CME.
Stock Analyst Note

Wide-moat CME Group reported strong fourth-quarter results as volatile fixed-income markets drove higher volume for the firm’s interest-rate futures. Revenue increased 19% from last year and 7.6% from last quarter to $1.44 billion. Diluted earnings per share increased 23.4% from last year to $2.37. As we incorporate these results, we do not plan to materially alter our $220 fair value estimate. We see the shares as fairly valued.

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