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Stock Analyst Note

Narrow-moat Align Technology reported first-quarter earnings that were slightly higher than we expected. Total sales of $979 million were down 1.8% and the adjusted earnings per share was $2.13, down 0.6%. Case shipments delivered 6.2% growth and kicked off the year on very solid ground, but average selling price was down 8.1% against last year and 2.0% sequentially. Since Invisalign treatments are usually considered discretionary spending, we originally anticipated demand to be muted for the year against the backdrop of tariff uncertainty, tougher macro conditions, and weak consumer sentiment. Despite the overall sales slip during the quarter, we were encouraged to hear a positive tone around demand. Management guided to aligner shipment growth of mid-single digits for the full year (our estimate is 4%) and low-single-digit average sales price declines (we estimate a 1% decline). We ticked up our full-year assumptions slightly, but maintained our fair value estimate of $240 per share as our changes were immaterial. Shares are up about 11% afterhours upon on the positive news.
Stock Analyst Note

On April 2, President Donald Trump announced a sweeping set of tariffs on all imports ranging from 10% to varying reciprocal rates, effective on April 5. In response, the broad dental market opened down yesterday at about a mid-single-digit percent from yesterday’s close and firms under our coverage—Align, Dentsply, Sirona, and Straumann—are all trading more than 5% lower at the time of writing. We think the industry can see two impacts from tariffs:
Stock Analyst Note

Narrow-moat Align Technology reported fourth-quarter earnings that slightly missed our estimates. Total sales of $995 million were up 4% year over year but came in below our $1.0 billion forecast as the clear aligner segment ends the year on weak footing. After updating our model and whittling down our near-term assumptions, we lower our fair value estimate to $280 per share from $296. The market’s adverse reaction to the soft readout and worse-than-expected guidance sent shares falling about 6% after-hours, and we think shares are trading at an attractive price.
Company Report

Align Technology is the leading manufacturer of clear aligners. Since it was granted US Food and Drug Administration approval in 1998, the Invisalign brand has dominated the market, providing a diverse set of solutions to patients across the world. The company operates in two segments: clear aligner and systems and services.
Stock Analyst Note

Narrow-moat Align Technology reported third-quarter earnings that came in slightly below our expectations. Total sales of $978 million was up 1.8% year over year but fell short of our $995 million estimate and the low end of last quarter’s guidance range, $980 million-$1,000 million. The US dental market remains sluggish, and patient flow is still suppressed, impeding Align’s end-market recovery despite improving macroeconomic conditions. We think the challenged environment will likely be in place throughout the rest of the year, and Algin’s top and bottom lines will be hindered. Against the backdrop of difficult market dynamics, Align announced a global restructuring plan that would affect about 3% of the firm’s headcount. While this comes with operating costs that pull back fourth-quarter margins, we think it can unlock long-term cost savings and help to expand margins. After slightly pulling back our full-year assumptions, we trim our fair value estimate to $296 per share from $300.
Stock Analyst Note

Narrow-moat Align Technology reported lower-than-expected second-quarter results. Total sales of $1.028 billion were up 2.6% year over year, narrowly missing last quarter’s guidance of $1.03 billion-$1.05 billion, as strong systems and services performance was partially offset by weaker clear aligners business. Systems and services continues to benefit from the iTero Lumina launch from early 2024, but we expect tailwinds to be curtailed for the second half of the year as offices wait to upgrade their scanner until Lumina’s restorative capabilities fully roll out in 2025. Clear aligners posted a 0.1% sales decline during the quarter despite a moderately growing volume due to a sluggish average selling price, or ASP. Unfavorable product mix from an increasing utilization of the Invisalign Doctor Subscription Program, difficult foreign exchange headwinds, and discounts all led to lower-than-anticipated ASP. Management lowered full-year sales growth guidance to 4%-6% from the previous 6%-8% after citing that low ASP is likely to continue posing challenges for the remainder of the year. After digesting July 25’s results and trimming our near-term assumptions, we lower our fair value estimate to $300 per share from $320.
Company Report

Align Technology is the leading manufacturer of clear aligners. Since it was granted US Food and Drug Administration approval in 1998, the Invisalign brand has dominated the market, providing a diverse set of solutions to patients across the world. The company operates in two segments: clear aligner and systems and services.
Company Report

Align Technology is the leading manufacturer of clear aligners. Since it was granted US Food and Drug Administration approval in 1998, the Invisalign brand has dominated the market, providing a diverse set of solutions to patients across the world. The company operates in two segments: clear aligner and systems and services.

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