Momentum Might be the Key Ingredient Missing from Woodside’s Share Price. No Change to AUD 49 FVE.

In nominal terms, our AUD 49 Woodside fair value estimate equates to a 2028 EV/EBITDA multiple of approximately 5.0. That’s after stripping out USD 5.2 billion lump sum from the EV for non-earnings-contributing resources including 2,636 million barrels of oil equivalent, or mmboe, of gas at Kitimat in Canada. On the same basis, our AUD 9.25 Santos fair value estimate equates to a similar 2028 EV/EBITDA multiple of approximately 4.7; and if you adjust for the fact Woodside’s 80% dividend payout ratio is more than double Santos’, our fair value EV/EBITDA multiples for them are effectively identical.