Norwegian's Turnaround Underway, but Full Effects Unlikely to Be Seen Until 2028

Thanks to travel demand that has more than recovered since the pandemic, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings' economic performance should generate excess economic rents over the back half of our forecast. When consumers returned to cruising in 2021 after a 15-month sailing halt, they regained an appetite for travel, bolstered by the value proposition cruising provides. With ships fully deployed and occupied, pricing had risen to record levels in 2025. However, prices and occupancy are falling in 2026 due to executional missteps (misaligned deployment and marketing initiatives), an issue we believe will take a few more quarters to remedy.