We Expect GM Will Be Fighting Commodity Inflation While Repurchasing Lots of Stock

We see General Motors with a competitive lineup in all segments it competes in and a reduced cost base ($2 billion cut across 2023-24), finally enabling it to have the scale to match its size. We think its long-term earnings potential is excellent, given a healthy North American unit and a mature finance arm with GM Financial. Moving hourly workers' retiree healthcare to a separate fund and closing plants dramatically lowered GM North America's breakeven point to US industry sales of about 10 million-11 million vehicles, assuming 18%-19% share. We expect more scale to come from a joint venture making electric vehicle batteries. 2027 US capacity expansion will ease tariff hits and add more SUV production. We estimate GM made 53.2% of its 2025 US-sold vehicles in the US.