Needs-Based Business Durability Offsets Discretionary Weakness at Tractor Supply

Tractor Supply is the largest consumer farm specialty retailer in the United States, surpassing $15.5 billion in sales in fiscal 2025. The firm has differentiated itself through its products and customer demographics, which provide underlying support to its brand-intangible assets and wide economic moat. At the end of 2025, the store base had grown about 23% over the prior five-year period, to approximately 2,600 locations, including acquired locations from Orscheln and Petsense, but only produced sales and EPS at average annual growth rates over the past three years of 3% and 2%, respectively, with profitability constrained by investments. We forecast the firm will grow to around 3,400 stores by 2035 as it expands into big-box centers in underpenetrated exurbs, with Petsense accounting for roughly 180 units.