Outlook Positive for Innovent Based on Leadership Position and Low Saturation in China GLP-1 Market

Innovent is a leading biotech company in China with strong roots in oncology, and has anchored its core PD-1 drug Tyvyt. However, its recently approved dual agonist GLP-1 drug in 2025 will be its long-term valuation driver, given that the PD-1 in China is now mature. We expect mazdutide, Innovent's GLP-1, to account for 25% of total revenue in 2027 from less than 5% in 2025. Mazdutide's advantage comes from its license agreements with Eli Lilly and first-mover advantage in China's GLP-1 market, which we estimate to have less than 1% penetration in 2025.