American Airlines Group Inc

AAL: XNAS (USA)

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US Airlines: Already Pushing the Limits; Lowering Our Long-Term Air Travel Growth Assumption

Nicolas Owens

Mar 27, 2026

We lowered our forecast for long-term air travel growth based on observed relationships among overall economic growth, demand for air travel, and the US share of global travel, which reduced our 2030 forecast for US airline capacity by 8%. We now suspect US airline capacity may shrink 1% in 2026.

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American Airlines Group Inc

US Airlines: Already Pushing the Limits; Lowering Our Long-Term Air Travel Growth Assumption

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