Lynas to Benefit as West Aims to Reduce China's Dominance of Rare-Earth Industry; Shares Overvalued

Lynas Rare Earths is the largest rare-earth producer outside China, with vertically integrated operations spanning mining, refining, and separation of various rare-earth oxides. It owns the Mount Weld mine in Western Australia, one of the highest-grade, lowest-cost, and longest-life rare-earth deposits in the world. It also has processing operations in Kalgoorlie, Australia and Kuantan, Malaysia. Lynas’ main products are separated, light rare-earth neodymium, or Nd, and praseodymium, or Pr, which account for approximately 60% of its production. They are sold to customers in the form of neodymium-praseodymium oxide. Lynas sold 6,600 metric tons of NdPr in fiscal 2025, about 10% of global supply, and we expect it to produce around 12,500 metric tons of NdPr midcycle in fiscal 2030 as it ramps up to its current nameplate while further expanding capacity.