Sea's E-Commerce Market Share Is Largely Stable; Garena's Growth Should Stabilize

We expect Shopee to be Sea’s main valuation driver for the long term. E-commerce as a percentage of retail sales was 4%-29% in major Southeast Asian economies as of August 2025 as per eMarketer, behind China's 52% and the UK's 31%, leaving ample room for incumbents and new entrants to expand. We assume Shopee’s gross merchandise volume, or GMV, in Southeast Asia, Taiwan, and Latin America to grow at 16% CAGR during 2025-34.