Sabre's Traction With New Customer Wins Offsetting Near-Term US Government Shutdown Headwinds

Despite near-term economic growth concerns caused by tariff uncertainty and the US government shutdown, which is negatively affecting its corporate and government business, we expect Sabre to reduce net debt/adjusted EBITDA to 6 times by the end of 2025 from 19 times in 2024, using proceeds from the prudent sale of its hospitality solutions business. We maintain our stance that Sabre will hold its position in global distribution systems, or GDS, over the next 10 years. This view is driven by a gradual recovery in corporate travel and Sabre's leading network of airline content and travel agency customers, as well as its solid position in technology solutions for these carriers and agents. Sabre's 30%-plus GDS air transaction share is the second largest of the three companies (behind narrow-moat Amadeus and ahead of privately held Travelport) that together control about 100% of market volume.