Retaining Glencore's GBX 460 per Share Fair Value Estimate; Shares Cheap

Glencore ranks among the most diversified of the large global miners. Though as China is the key demand driver for much of what Glencore mines, diversification benefits are limited. Glencore’s oil and agriculture businesses (held through its 50% stake in Viterra, which has agreed to merge with competitor Bunge, likely effective in 2025) are less China-centric but relatively small contributors, while its marketing business (roughly 30% of forecast midcycle group EBITDA from 2029) should be relatively resilient to changes in China’s rate of economic growth.