Twilio Earnings: Solid Start to 2025 With Healthy Large Deals

No-moat Twilio kicked off 2025 with results that topped our expectations on both the top and bottom lines and prompted a modest bump to the company’s full-year guidance, which sent shares higher after hours. We like the execution in the quarter but are cautious on the uncertain macro environment. Management said it has not seen any material impact on customer engagement metrics on the heels of rising global uncertainty, but updated guidance baked in some conservatism. Overall, we incorporate the good performance offset by near-term headwinds into our model and maintain our $120 fair value estimate. While we see the stock as slightly undervalued, we prefer moatier companies during this volatile macro environment.