Tractor Supply Earnings: Weather and Investments Crimp Results but Don’t Change Our Long-Term View

Wide-moat Tractor Supply’s 2025 first-quarter results fell short of our comparable sales forecast by 190 basis points (with a 0.9% decline) and operating margin outlook by 60 basis points (7.2%). Still, coupled with a modest reduction in profit estimates reflecting second-quarter tariff impacts and broader economic uncertainty, our full-year forecast remains largely intact. As such, we don’t plan a material change to our $46 per share fair value estimate and see shares as fairly valued after a mid-single-digit decline on the report.