Cutting TSMC's Fair Value Estimate by 6% as Tariffs Hit Non-AI Outlook

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. is the world’s largest dedicated contract chip manufacturer, or foundry, with mid-60s market share in 2024. It makes integrated circuits for customers based on their proprietary IC designs. TSMC has long benefited from semiconductor firms around the globe transitioning from integrated device manufacturers to fabless designers. Like all foundries, it assumes the costs and capital expenditures of running factories amid a highly cyclical market for its customers. Foundries tend to add excessive capacity during times of burgeoning demand, which can result in underutilization during downturns that hampers profitability.