MGM's Macao Exposure Faces Incremental Geopolitical Uncertainty

In late February, President Donald Trump added Macao to the list of “foreign adversary” countries, restricting the region from investing in US areas such as technology, infrastructure, and energy. In addition, Trump’s tariff war is moving the US further toward protectionism, a shift we see lasting for the foreseeable future. Also, the Macao market is highly regulated, and as a result, the pace and timing of growth are at the discretion of the government. As a result, we think investors are seeking an incremental risk premium for MGM's Macao exposure (20% of estimated EBITDAR by the end of 2030).