China Insurers Earnings: New Business Value Growth Stronger Than Expected; 2025 Outlook Still Vague

We maintain our fair value estimates for China Life at HKD 20 per share, China Pacific, or CPIC, at HKD 30, and New China Life, or NCI, at HKD 22. These companies reported strong 2024 net profit growth of 109%, 65%, and 201% respectively, driven by solid investment gains. China Life and CPIC are undervalued at 0.3 to 0.4 times 2025 embedded value, while NCI is overvalued. Ping An and CPIC remain our top picks among Chinese insurers due to better dividend visibility, lower policy costs, and substantial improvements in agent productivity. We believe the rebound in government bond yields and insurers’ downward adjustment to key economic assumptions should ease concerns about spread loss risks. However, further rerating will likely require greater dividend visibility and more insight into 2025 new business growth.